Conditional on manifold still existing in 2030 they must have become profitable. Can’t be that hard if you’re the bank selling Monopoly money for real $

Right now manifold's selling real money (donations) for monopoly money (engagement metric bonuses)

This resolves No if Manifold shuts down before becoming profitable

@JonathanRay for a startup of their size, they have a large burn rate

@JonathanRay And then charging 10% on profits and 5% on withdrawals. Should be happening very soon actually if not already.

How long does it need to be profitable for? One year period from any arbitrary month? One month period? etc

@wustep Hmm, good question. I suppose it should be more like a long term trend than just a fluke, at least.

@BenjaminIkuta maybe “[one or two consecutive] fiscal quarters” might be a good criteria?

@wustep Sure, that seems reasonable. Let's say two consecutive quarters. I presume they publish their financials in such a fashion?

What happens if Manifold is acquired - N/A? And I assume if Manifold shuts down entirely that would be a NO?

@jack I presume that if it shuts down, it doesn't resolve

If it has to shut down bc it was never profitable, I think no makes sense

@jack If it shuts down, of course it's not profitable. If it's acquired, hopefully we can still know if it's profitable or not, but if we cannot know, then I suppose it could be N/A. Does that seem reasonable?

@BenjaminIkuta actually, I prefer to resolve PROB rather than N/A, if necessary.

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-manifold-be-profitable-before-c951ad77362b