Will Manifold be profitable before 2030?
43
450
1k
2030
46%
chance

Or will it just keep burning venture capital?

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Conditional on manifold still existing in 2030 they must have become profitable. Can’t be that hard if you’re the bank selling Monopoly money for real $

Right now manifold's selling real money (donations) for monopoly money (engagement metric bonuses)

predicts NO

This resolves No if Manifold shuts down before becoming profitable

predicts NO

@JonathanRay for a startup of their size, they have a large burn rate

bought Ṁ4 of YES

How long does it need to be profitable for? One year period from any arbitrary month? One month period? etc

@wustep Hmm, good question. I suppose it should be more like a long term trend than just a fluke, at least.

predicts YES

@BenjaminIkuta maybe “[one or two consecutive] fiscal quarters” might be a good criteria?

@wustep Sure, that seems reasonable. Let's say two consecutive quarters. I presume they publish their financials in such a fashion?

bought Ṁ20 of NO

What happens if Manifold is acquired - N/A? And I assume if Manifold shuts down entirely that would be a NO?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@jack I presume that if it shuts down, it doesn't resolve

If it has to shut down bc it was never profitable, I think no makes sense

@jack If it shuts down, of course it's not profitable. If it's acquired, hopefully we can still know if it's profitable or not, but if we cannot know, then I suppose it could be N/A. Does that seem reasonable?

@BenjaminIkuta actually, I prefer to resolve PROB rather than N/A, if necessary.