Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Crystal

Ṁ300k

2026

61%

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Interest on held cash

Other

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

Transactions fees from trades

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Subscription plan

1.8%

Selling data / API access / colocation

1.4%

Sales of digital goods

1.4%

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

1.3%

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

1.3%

On-site advertising

1.2%

Job board / hiring program

At the start of 2026, I will look at our revenue sources for December 2025 and choose the most relevant answer in my estimation.

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This is cool

So you like manifold meta markets? Well, have I got a treat for you! https://manifold.markets/CKLorentzen/what-will-be-the-topic-of-the-highe

bought Ṁ10,000 NO

We've removed transaction fees on the platform (for both mana and sweepcash)!

trading fees have been removed, so this seems unlikely at the moment

How do you value mana on your balance sheet? 1000:1?
Are you counting only Manifold's cut as revenue on Mana sales? (Added 20% on the 25k mana options, say). Or the whole thing?

What about miscellaneous investments using held cash, like that time Austin loaned money to Marcus' company? Does that get rolled into "Interest On Held Cash"?

What would win for July 2024?

Mana purchases

so is this doc ~roughly the methodology you'd use?

yeah, basically

bought Ṁ50 YES

Predict Manifold's financial future!

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