Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?
๐Ÿ’Ž
Premium
60
แน€135k
2026
43%
Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)
30%
Transactions fees from trades
7%
Interest on held cash
4%
Other
4%
House rake on games (e.g. poker)
3%
B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)
2%
Subscription plan
1.4%
Selling data / API access / colocation
1.1%
Sales of digital goods
1.1%
Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)
1.1%
On-site advertising
1%
Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets
1%
Job board / hiring program

At the start of 2026, I will look at our revenue sources for December 2025 and choose the most relevant answer in my estimation.

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  1. How do you value mana on your balance sheet? 1000:1?

  2. Are you counting only Manifold's cut as revenue on Mana sales? (Added 20% on the 25k mana options, say). Or the whole thing?

What about miscellaneous investments using held cash, like that time Austin loaned money to Marcus' company? Does that get rolled into "Interest On Held Cash"?

What would win for July 2024?

Mana purchases

so is this doc ~roughly the methodology you'd use?

yeah, basically

bought แน€50 Mana purchases (or s... YES

Predict Manifold's financial future!