Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

171

130kṀ820k

Jan 1

46%

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

30%

Other

10%

Interest on held cash

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Transactions fees from trades

1.4%

Sales of digital goods

1.3%

Job board / hiring program

1.2%

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

1.2%

Subscription plan

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

At the start of 2026, I will look at our revenue sources for December 2025 and choose the most relevant answer in my estimation.

Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification Update:
- Fees from promoting markets are to be categorized as ads.
- On-site advertising is also categorized as ads.

Update 2025-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Revenue Currency Clarification: Only USD revenue will be counted for resolution.
- This means that any revenue not in USD (such as ad (boost) mana revenue) will be excluded.

Market context

Manifold

Manifold Business Future

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/answer settling Twitter beef

@SG Current update?

Please add escrow as a source of income

@SG Since it seems like there's going to be Manifold merchandise soon, can you add that here?

bought Ṁ250 YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 All they have to do is post Manifest 2026 ticket presale on 1 December and bam, it will win.

@Eliza i'd just like them to announce the friggin date

this is in no way going to impact your decision @SG: but nothing to lose by saying it, so can it please be June 19-21??? 🥺

filled a Ṁ50 YES at 12% order

how much cash does manifold currently sit on, roughly?

@Luxeed not much...

Basically, if SG holds No shares in that option you have to believe this is a negligible item.

Mana sales dropped off a cliff with the sweepstakes sunsetting, and have not recovered yet.

Are ad (boost) mana revenue counted as revenue or does it have to be USD?

@ian That would be a CRAZY stretch in Manifold 2025.

@ian No, only USD revenue will be counted.

I don't think ads exist here

@ifechukwumunachiso this is true currently but the options in this market were selected by the site CEO so it’s reasonable to think that’s at least plausibly on the table

@ifechukwumunachiso Both "fees from...promoting markets" and "on-site advertising" are ads

bought Ṁ250 NO

this suddenly became a banger market imo. anything is on the table! come up with monetization ideas & save manifold!!

Based on the history this year, I expect mana sales to stay around $10k per month, and I would be surprised if promoting markets earns that much:
https://manifold.markets/stats

@TimothyJohnson5c16 @SG

How will this work though? Won't the massive amount of redemption of sweepstakes cash in February make Mana purchases net negative for the year?

@HillaryClinton The description says this is based just on December 2025, not the whole year. So Sweepcash won't exist anymore by then.

sold Ṁ2,734 YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 As of today, the total mana sales in the last two weeks are just $255. My prediction that it would be steady at $10k per month seems badly wrong.