Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

120

130kṀ560k

2026

30%

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

30%

Other

12%

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Subscription plan

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

On-site advertising

Interest on held cash

Transactions fees from trades

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

1.9%

Selling data / API access / colocation

1.8%

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

1.5%

Job board / hiring program

1.2%

Sales of digital goods

At the start of 2026, I will look at our revenue sources for December 2025 and choose the most relevant answer in my estimation.

Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification Update:
- Fees from promoting markets are to be categorized as ads.
- On-site advertising is also categorized as ads.

Update 2025-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Revenue Currency Clarification: Only USD revenue will be counted for resolution.
- This means that any revenue not in USD (such as ad (boost) mana revenue) will be excluded.

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Mana sales dropped off a cliff with the sweepstakes sunsetting, and have not recovered yet.

Are ad (boost) mana revenue counted as revenue or does it have to be USD?

@ian That would be a CRAZY stretch in Manifold 2025.

@ian No, only USD revenue will be counted.

I don't think ads exist here

@ifechukwumunachiso this is true currently but the options in this market were selected by the site CEO so it’s reasonable to think that’s at least plausibly on the table

@ifechukwumunachiso Both "fees from...promoting markets" and "on-site advertising" are ads

bought Ṁ250 NO

this suddenly became a banger market imo. anything is on the table! come up with monetization ideas & save manifold!!

Based on the history this year, I expect mana sales to stay around $10k per month, and I would be surprised if promoting markets earns that much:
https://manifold.markets/stats

@TimothyJohnson5c16 @SG

How will this work though? Won't the massive amount of redemption of sweepstakes cash in February make Mana purchases net negative for the year?

@HillaryClinton The description says this is based just on December 2025, not the whole year. So Sweepcash won't exist anymore by then.

sold Ṁ2,734 YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 As of today, the total mana sales in the last two weeks are just $255. My prediction that it would be steady at $10k per month seems badly wrong.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 mine as well 😢

This is cool

So you like manifold meta markets? Well, have I got a treat for you! https://manifold.markets/CKLorentzen/what-will-be-the-topic-of-the-highe

bought Ṁ10,000 NO

We've removed transaction fees on the platform (for both mana and sweepcash)!

trading fees have been removed, so this seems unlikely at the moment

How do you value mana on your balance sheet? 1000:1?
Are you counting only Manifold's cut as revenue on Mana sales? (Added 20% on the 25k mana options, say). Or the whole thing?

What about miscellaneous investments using held cash, like that time Austin loaned money to Marcus' company? Does that get rolled into "Interest On Held Cash"?