What will Manifold's biggest growth vector be over the next 3 months?
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Ṁ2.6Kresolved Aug 1
1D
1W
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8%
Launching charity prediction markets
1.1%
Discord and Twitch chat bots that allow anyone to create and bet on markets, eg:
/market "Will I win this game?"
/bet 10 NO
17%
Helping new users get onboarded by talking to experienced users & market advocates on Chord (https://chordapp.io) - creating warm intros between community members
59%
Pay (or otherwise entice) well-known figures such as Aella or Julia Galef to create and promote markets
0.5%
Mirroring markets between different platforms (eg surfacing Metaculus questions in Manifold, and vice-versa)
0.6%
Daily incentives to log on and participate (e.g. M$ 50 sign-in bonus, or M$ 100 first market created bonus, or M$ 10 first bet bonus)
14%
A handful of markets that go viral on Twitter/Hacker News/Reddit.
0.0%
Real money Prizepools for Markets (a-la Metaculus tournaments)
Now that we've finished fundraising, we're looking to grow!
What will be the biggest and most impactful way we grow our DAUs (daily active users) over the next 3 months (May, June, July 2022)? Potential answers can be different marketing channels (SEO, FB/twitter ads), growth hacks (M$ referral bonuses), celebrity endorsements, you name it!
Sussing out the causality of precisely *which* mechanism led to growth may not always be so clear. I'll try to resolve according to my best judgment. I will also, on the margin, prefer specific helpful answers (e.g. start a FB marketing campaign targeting ACX readers who recently graduated from MIT), over more correct but vaguer ones (e.g. "ads").
You can follow our progress in real time on our analytics dashboard: https://manifold.markets/analytics
Get Ṁ200 play money
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@ThomasSmyth jk, here's the real market: https://manifold.markets/SG/what-will-manifolds-biggest-growth-0e6313ee22ee
I'm not as high on this one, because I think community-led engagement has been much stronger for Manifold than creator-led. Aka a betting market is really about the N:N interactions between each of the bettors in it, not so much a 1:N broadcast medium (like Twitter/Tiktok/Substack)
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