What will Manifold's biggest growth vector be over the next 3 months?

960Ṁ2563

resolved Aug 1

100%59%

Pay (or otherwise entice) well-known figures such as Aella or Julia Galef to create and promote markets

0.1%Other

Launching charity prediction markets

1.1%

Discord and Twitch chat bots that allow anyone to create and bet on markets, eg: /market "Will I win this game?" /bet 10 NO

17%

Helping new users get onboarded by talking to experienced users & market advocates on Chord (https://chordapp.io) - creating warm intros between community members

0.5%

Mirroring markets between different platforms (eg surfacing Metaculus questions in Manifold, and vice-versa)

0.6%

Daily incentives to log on and participate (e.g. M$ 50 sign-in bonus, or M$ 100 first market created bonus, or M$ 10 first bet bonus)

14%

A handful of markets that go viral on Twitter/Hacker News/Reddit.

0.0%

Real money Prizepools for Markets (a-la Metaculus tournaments)

Now that we've finished fundraising, we're looking to grow! What will be the biggest and most impactful way we grow our DAUs (daily active users) over the next 3 months (May, June, July 2022)? Potential answers can be different marketing channels (SEO, FB/twitter ads), growth hacks (M$ referral bonuses), celebrity endorsements, you name it! Sussing out the causality of precisely *which* mechanism led to growth may not always be so clear. I'll try to resolve according to my best judgment. I will also, on the margin, prefer specific helpful answers (e.g. start a FB marketing campaign targeting ACX readers who recently graduated from MIT), over more correct but vaguer ones (e.g. "ads"). You can follow our progress in real time on our analytics dashboard: https://manifold.markets/analytics

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