What will Manifold's biggest growth vector be over the next 3 months?
Aug 1
M$2,075 bet
Now that we've finished fundraising, we're looking to grow! What will be the biggest and most impactful way we grow our DAUs (daily active users) over the next 3 months (May, June, July 2022)? Potential answers can be different marketing channels (SEO, FB/twitter ads), growth hacks (M$ referral bonuses), celebrity endorsements, you name it! Sussing out the causality of precisely *which* mechanism led to growth may not always be so clear. I'll try to resolve according to my best judgment. I will also, on the margin, prefer specific helpful answers (e.g. start a FB marketing campaign targeting ACX readers who recently graduated from MIT), over more correct but vaguer ones (e.g. "ads"). You can follow our progress in real time on our analytics dashboard: https://manifold.markets/analytics
Austin
Austin answered
Pay (or otherwise entice) well-known figures such as Aella or Julia Galef to create and promote markets
37%
KevinLiu
Kevin Liu answered
Helping new users get onboarded by talking to experienced users & market advocates on Chord (https://chordapp.io) - creating warm intros between community members
22%
JamesGrugett
James Grugett answered
A handful of markets that go viral on Twitter/Hacker News/Reddit.
17%
dreev
Daniel Reeves answered
Launching charity prediction markets
10%
FRCassarino
FRCassarino answered
Real money Prizepools for Markets (a-la Metaculus tournaments)
10%
Austin
Austin answered
Discord and Twitch chat bots that allow anyone to create and bet on markets, eg: /market "Will I win this game?" /bet 10 NO
1.4%
Austin
Austin answered
Daily incentives to log on and participate (e.g. M$ 50 sign-in bonus, or M$ 100 first market created bonus, or M$ 10 first bet bonus)
0.9%
Austin
Austin answered
Mirroring markets between different platforms (eg surfacing Metaculus questions in Manifold, and vice-versa)
0.6%
Add your answer
Austin
Pay (or otherwise entice) well-known figures such as Aella or Julia Galef to create and promote markets
37%
Austin

Austin bought M$10a month ago

I'm not as high on this one, because I think community-led engagement has been much stronger for Manifold than creator-led. Aka a betting market is really about the N:N interactions between each of the bettors in it, not so much a 1:N broadcast medium (like Twitter/Tiktok/Substack)
SG

S G bought M$50a month ago

Exactly. You could say that most of our current community has come through Scott Alexander, even though his personal 1-N interactions on this site haven’t been that important.
BoltonBailey

Bolton Bailey bought M$1017 days ago

Aella made a market!
KevinLiu
Helping new users get onboarded by talking to experienced users & market advocates on Chord (https://chordapp.io) - creating warm intros between community members
22%
JamesGrugett
A handful of markets that go viral on Twitter/Hacker News/Reddit.
17%
dreev
Launching charity prediction markets
10%
Austin

Austin bought M$20a month ago

Thanks for the vote of confidence! Fingers crossed for CPM to be released within a week~
FRCassarino
Real money Prizepools for Markets (a-la Metaculus tournaments)
10%
Austin
Discord and Twitch chat bots that allow anyone to create and bet on markets, eg: /market "Will I win this game?" /bet 10 NO
1.4%
Austin

Austin bought M$10a month ago

Actually, on Discord, betting could be as easy as reacting on the bot's message. E.g. have `πŸ“ˆπŸ‘βœ…πŸ†™` represent a YES bet, and the opposite ones represent a NO bet.
Austin
Daily incentives to log on and participate (e.g. M$ 50 sign-in bonus, or M$ 100 first market created bonus, or M$ 10 first bet bonus)
0.9%
Austin
Mirroring markets between different platforms (eg surfacing Metaculus questions in Manifold, and vice-versa)
0.6%
General Comments
EnopoletusHarding

Enopoletus Harding a month ago

The point is, the influencers have large audiences. The more these audience members know about Manifold, the more they join it.
Austin

Austin a month ago

Hahaha is this your startup? I can appreciate a good plug when I see it~
dreev

Daniel Reeves a month ago

I don't know yet how to articulate my skepticism but I kind of want to short the chat bot idea, even though I'm generally very into chat bots.
EnopoletusHarding

Enopoletus Harding a month ago

Get Aella and Tyler Cowen to use it. At least, that's the most straightforward channel.