What will Manifold's biggest growth vector be over the next 3 months?

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resolved Aug 1

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100%59%

Pay (or otherwise entice) well-known figures such as Aella or Julia Galef to create and promote markets

0.1%Other

Launching charity prediction markets

1.1%

Discord and Twitch chat bots that allow anyone to create and bet on markets, eg: /market "Will I win this game?" /bet 10 NO

17%

Helping new users get onboarded by talking to experienced users & market advocates on Chord (https://chordapp.io) - creating warm intros between community members

0.5%

Mirroring markets between different platforms (eg surfacing Metaculus questions in Manifold, and vice-versa)

0.6%

Daily incentives to log on and participate (e.g. M$ 50 sign-in bonus, or M$ 100 first market created bonus, or M$ 10 first bet bonus)

14%

A handful of markets that go viral on Twitter/Hacker News/Reddit.

0.0%

Real money Prizepools for Markets (a-la Metaculus tournaments)

Now that we've finished fundraising, we're looking to grow! What will be the biggest and most impactful way we grow our DAUs (daily active users) over the next 3 months (May, June, July 2022)? Potential answers can be different marketing channels (SEO, FB/twitter ads), growth hacks (M$ referral bonuses), celebrity endorsements, you name it! Sussing out the causality of precisely *which* mechanism led to growth may not always be so clear. I'll try to resolve according to my best judgment. I will also, on the margin, prefer specific helpful answers (e.g. start a FB marketing campaign targeting ACX readers who recently graduated from MIT), over more correct but vaguer ones (e.g. "ads"). You can follow our progress in real time on our analytics dashboard: https://manifold.markets/analytics

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13 Comments

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I was right! I was right! I was right!

Feature request: a way to get notified if there's a follow-up market or a related market! I am excited to bet on Twitter/other platform integrations in the next 6mo :)

@ThomasSmyth New market: https://manifold.markets/SG/what-will-manifolds-biggest-growth-041e63c8d489

@ThomasSmyth jk, here's the real market: https://manifold.markets/SG/what-will-manifolds-biggest-growth-0e6313ee22ee

Aella made a market!

Exactly. You could say that most of our current community has come through Scott Alexander, even though his personal 1-N interactions on this site haven’t been that important.

The point is, the influencers have large audiences. The more these audience members know about Manifold, the more they join it.

I'm not as high on this one, because I think community-led engagement has been much stronger for Manifold than creator-led. Aka a betting market is really about the N:N interactions between each of the bettors in it, not so much a 1:N broadcast medium (like Twitter/Tiktok/Substack)

Thanks for the vote of confidence! Fingers crossed for CPM to be released within a week~

Hahaha is this your startup? I can appreciate a good plug when I see it~

I don't know yet how to articulate my skepticism but I kind of want to short the chat bot idea, even though I'm generally very into chat bots.

Actually, on Discord, betting could be as easy as reacting on the bot's message. E.g. have `📈👍✅🆙` represent a YES bet, and the opposite ones represent a NO bet.

Get Aella and Tyler Cowen to use it. At least, that's the most straightforward channel.

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