Among current heads of state, who will be the next to die?

Ṁ3.5kṀ40k

resolved May 13

100%20%

President of the United Arab Emirates Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan

0.0%Other

0.1%

Queen Elizabeth

0.0%

Paul Biya

0.0%

Biden

0.0%

Michel Aoun

0.0%

The colombian president

0.0%

Harald V

0.0%

Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud

0.0%

President of Cameroon Paul Biya

0.0%

President of Lebanon Michel Aoun

0.0%

President of the State of Palestine Mahmoud Abbas

0.0%

Pope Francis

0.0%

Governor-General of the Bahamas Sir Cornelius Alvin Smith

0.0%

Emir of Kuwait Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah

0.0%

Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei

0.0%

President of Russia Vladimir Putin

0.0%

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy

0.0%

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko

0.0%

President of Algeria Abdelmadjid Tebboune

Among the heads of state in power as of 02/17/2022, who will die next? Close date updated to 2022-02-26 6:06 pm Close date updated to 2022-03-05 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-01 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-05-31 8:19 am

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34 Comments

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well this was some bullshit. Last time I bet on a market by Duncan.

@M Who was the next to die? "Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan" died. "Someone else" did not die.

Is it in the spirit of the market to make-up rules as you go? This is the person who died. They were the first to die. That is the answer. As a retailer bettor, I am not checking timestamps as to which option was added first or last, I am betting with options available to me at the time. If the correct answer is not the right answer, then that is unjust. From now on in every market I will immediately create an option which states "someone or something else not listed." Or, maybe I shall choose to be reasonable and rational?

@Mirek This is a reasonable perspective! But I think the opposite perspective is also reasonable? I had previously said on the Discord that I'm accepting my ~M$800 loss for jumping on the Khalifa option before reading anything. :)

(See also my reply in the comment thread on the Khalifa option, about how the somone-not-listed option did explicitly stipulate "at the time of death".)

@dreev I am not sure what Discord is or how to access the reading? However, I am just making a decision based on the information available to me. To me it's just disheartening that if a resolution does not stick to the spirit of the question, a precedent is set for even more ornery actions of bad-faith actors. I can accept an instance of tomfoolery on a day such as Prima Aprilis, however, it cheapens the experience for a marketplace which is trying to act seriously. I wish for the best.

@Mirek I'm a bit late to the party, but just so you know now, "Discord" is a real-time chatting platform. You can join Manifold's Discord server here.

hedging. This is all about the resolution decision now

@Giovanni I think the correct resolution of this market would be 75% Khalifa, 25% "Someone else not mentioned"

@SG hmm I'm not sure I agree. Rewarding a "none of the above" seems questionable, but so does rewarding an answer that wasnt a prediction but rather a reaction...

@SG You can't have a none-of-the-above option if you're going to split the difference after none-of-the-above happens. The percentages won't properly add up to 100% if the price of one of the options does not in fact reflect the probability of it happening

It looks like the Khalifa option was added after his actual death (@MichaelWheatley checked the timestamps) and the someone-not-listed does explicitly stipulate "someone not listed at the time of their death". So I'm now thinking that the someone-not-listed option is what's most in the spirit of this market.