Among current heads of state, who will be the next to die?
60
3.5kṀ40kresolved May 13
100%20%
President of the United Arab Emirates Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan
0.0%Other
0.1%
Queen Elizabeth
0.0%
Paul Biya
0.0%
Biden
0.0%
Michel Aoun
0.0%
The colombian president
0.0%
Harald V
0.0%
Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud
0.0%
President of Cameroon Paul Biya
0.0%
President of Lebanon Michel Aoun
0.0%
President of the State of Palestine Mahmoud Abbas
0.0%
Pope Francis
0.0%
Governor-General of the Bahamas Sir Cornelius Alvin Smith
0.0%
Emir of Kuwait Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah
0.0%
Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei
0.0%
President of Russia Vladimir Putin
0.0%
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy
0.0%
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko
0.0%
President of Algeria Abdelmadjid Tebboune
Among the heads of state in power as of 02/17/2022, who will die next?
Close date updated to 2022-02-26 6:06 pm
Close date updated to 2022-03-05 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-05-01 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-05-31 8:19 am
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,718 | |
| 2 | Ṁ932 | |
| 3 | Ṁ785 | |
| 4 | Ṁ449 | |
| 5 | Ṁ143 |
Sort by:
Is it in the spirit of the market to make-up rules as you go? This is the person who died. They were the first to die. That is the answer. As a retailer bettor, I am not checking timestamps as to which option was added first or last, I am betting with options available to me at the time. If the correct answer is not the right answer, then that is unjust. From now on in every market I will immediately create an option which states "someone or something else not listed." Or, maybe I shall choose to be reasonable and rational?
(See also my reply in the comment thread on the Khalifa option, about how the somone-not-listed option did explicitly stipulate "at the time of death".)
@dreev I am not sure what Discord is or how to access the reading? However, I am just making a decision based on the information available to me. To me it's just disheartening that if a resolution does not stick to the spirit of the question, a precedent is set for even more ornery actions of bad-faith actors. I can accept an instance of tomfoolery on a day such as Prima Aprilis, however, it cheapens the experience for a marketplace which is trying to act seriously. I wish for the best.
It looks like the Khalifa option was added after his actual death (@MichaelWheatley checked the timestamps) and the someone-not-listed does explicitly stipulate "someone not listed at the time of their death". So I'm now thinking that the someone-not-listed option is what's most in the spirit of this market.
@Duncan, this market should be resolved. https://gulfnews.com/uae/uae-president-sheikh-khalifa-bin-zayed-passes-away-1.1652437049728
I will chose this answer as correct in the case that all leaders other than Putin die on the same day.
Related questions
Related questions
Who will be the next world leader to die violently while in office?
Who will be the next (current or former) US president to die, aside from Carter?
Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?
From what continent will the next assassinated head of state and/or government come from?
Which of the following top-20-GDP countries will be next to have an acting head of state assassinated?
Will the next President of the United States die in office?
19% chance
Will the next president die while in office?
16% chance
Which of these politicians will die first?
Which President will pass away before 2030
Who will be the next President to die?