While I can't think of any single criterion for this market, I believe we'll know ASI when we see it. Human labour will have almost entirely obsolesced, AI will be conquering the stars, the rate and scope of science will have increased beyond our comprehension, etc.
Market created on 12/03/2025.
1,000@ProjectVictory ASI won't be conquering stars within 20 years without some very exotic physics, so I'm just ignoring that part, or interpreting it to mean that conquering the stars is on its to-do list. The resolution criteria are vibes-based anyway, so I don't think that should get in the way of "we'll know it when we see it."
But do I expect ASI within 5 years? Yes, that likely happens by default unless we stop it. (I'm personally spending a lot of effort trying to stop it.)