Will there be computer hardware on mars running AGI before there are humans on mars?
Definition of AGI: for now as a placeholder I will use Metaculus’ criteria for “When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?”.
However, I don’t much like those criteria and would prefer something like “an AI that is as good as a good human at almost all computer-based jobs”. If someone can point me to an existing operationalisation along those lines I’d probably switch to it.
1,000
3.00IMO this market is forcing a "it's a spectrum" concept into a binary resolution. I try to steer clear of those. Too much of the betting strategy ends up focused on "what do they really mean when they say X?"
Edit; it's an interesting question, though! Just not something I want to bet on.