Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
22
1.0k
2035
37%
chance

Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Mars, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2035. For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Mars must occur within a distance of no more than 1 million kilometers from the planet.

Questions with the same criteria:

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/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3fcd58236f90 (this question)

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Human venture on Mars questions:

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-cbd9e461335b

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-f591cd57e406

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-df3792742b47

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Solar system exploration questions:

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3fcd58236f90 (this question)

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-89a5bfdee8ca

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-2a28875c1c26

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-0a7d585d5f97

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-1c5b2e348e1d

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Other questions:

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/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05

To meet the criteria, the human aboard the spacecraft must remain awake for at least one continuous hour during the period when the spacecraft is within the 1 million kilometers threshold from Mars. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute (prohibiting some, hypothetical, methods of stasis).

The safe return of the human passenger is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. The human must be alive as the spacecraft reaches the 1 million kilometers threshold from Mars. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of crossing this threshold, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least one hour while the spacecraft remains under the specified distance from Mars.

Additionally, the human on board must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body is permissible within the context of this question.

Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tharsis_and_Valles_Marineris_-_Mars_Orbiter_Mission_(30055660701).png

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predicts NO

I don’t understand why some traders are so sure about this will happen. Currently there are no plans announced by anyone. Not to mention we have only 5 more launch windows left until 2035. They should accommodate all test flights and potential failures and retries.

@FatihKurt a lot can happen in >10 years tbf

predicts NO

@RemNiFHfMN Well for sure I hope so, im ready to lose a lot more mana if im proven wrong. But honestly i still think its wishful thinking.

@FatihKurt I guess it cuts both ways. A lot of random unexpected things can happen that would delay a Mars mission too