Resolves as YES if 95% of individuals diagnosed with cancer are alive and cancer-free (complete remission) 18 months after initial diagnosis, in a least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy.

In order for this question to resolve as YES, there has to be credible evidence in each qualifying country that this threshold has been reached. This evidence (e.g. clinical studies) must take into consideration patients diagnosed with cancer at least 18 months prior to January 1st 2033.

Questions with the same criteria:

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2025?1%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2026?3%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2027?5%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2028?6%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2029?10%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2030?13%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2031?15%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2032?17%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2033?19%‌ (this question)

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2034?26%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2035?33%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2036?27%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2037?32%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2038?49%‌

Numeric market:

What year do we get a cure for cancer?‌

Other questions for 2033:

Will we get AGI before 2033?69%‌

Will we get ASI before 2033?48%‌

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2033?19%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2033?79%‌

Will we discover alien life before 2033?15%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?36%‌

Will a human walk on Mars before 2033?20%‌

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2033?79%‌

Other reference points for cure for cancer:

Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?68%‌

Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?20%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before we get fusion reactors?23%‌

The cohorts considered in these studies must be statistically representative of that country's population.