Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2033?
33
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2033
21%
chance

Resolves as YES if a superconductor at Room Temperature (RT) and Ambient Pressure (AP) has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before January 1st 2033.

Questions with the same criteria:

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Room Temperature is defined as between 0 and 30 centigrade. Ambient Pressure is defined as between 0.5 and 2 atmospheres.

Image credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Meissner_effect.ogv

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predicts YES

I've made a 2100 version of this market to try and decouple the question about rates of technical progress from the question of this is actually technically possible:

https://manifold.markets/CameronHolmes/will-we-get-a-room-temperature-ambi?r=Q2FtZXJvbkhvbG1lcw

predicts NO

Ambient Pressure is defined as 0.5 bar

@RemNi I assume you meant "at least 0.5 bar", but for what it's worth, it's high pressures at which superconductivity is easier, not low. So if, like with defining "room temperature" as "at least 0 C" you're looking to give a little leeway to be generous, you should give it on the other side and say "ambient pressure means at most two atmospheres" or something like that.

Otherwise someone will invent a room-temperature superconductor at 200 GPa and it would satisfy this criterion. Some are close already:

Superconductivity at 250 K in lanthanum hydride under high pressures

Here we report superconductivity with a critical temperature of around 250 kelvin within the Fm3m structure of LaH10 at a pressure of about 170 gigapascals. This is, to our knowledge, the highest critical temperature that has been confirmed so far in a superconducting material.

@chrisjbillington ah that's great input, thanks! I'll update the criteria

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