Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2033?

Resolves as YES if at least one million humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2033.

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/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-04a4cc646b5b (this question)


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These humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question.

Each robot must be between 1.25 and 3 meters tall when standing up, and weigh between 25 and 500 kg. Furthermore, each robot must be able to lift a 5kg box off the floor and walk with it for 10 meters in order to qualify.

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Seems like an easy NO. A million units is quite a lot to make (10 years at 100K / year!). Even once tech is "ready" for commercialization (we may already be there), businesses will be slow to adopt en masse. They'll wait a year or two and see how it works out with a few test units.

I think production will remain under 2.5K units/year until end of decade.

And there's a significant risk that "humanoid" won't be the form factor that really takes off.

What do you think now? ๐Ÿ˜„