Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?
28
166
570
2030
90%
chance

This question resolves as YES if, before the January 1st 2030, a meme generated by artificial intelligence gains significant recognition and viral status, comparable to the widespread influence and shareability of popular memes created by humans. The meme must be widely acknowledged as being AI-generated and should achieve a level of cultural impact and dissemination across various media and social platforms, reflecting a substantial influence in the meme culture and digital community.

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The "idea" of the meme must have been discovered by an AI. If a human comes up with an idea for a meme, and then creates an image using a text-to-image model that corresponds to this idea and puts it online, this does not count. Furthermore, the meme cannot be simply the fact that the content itself is AI generated. The semantics of the meme must refer to something else.


The meme must not solely be text-based, and must contain a non-text AI-generated component (e.g. image, video or audio). Text-based AI-generated memes arguably already exist:

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/ai-generated-greentexts

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Thank you for the interesting market!

One thing that's not super clear to me. Suppose an AI generates, say, a video. Then a human uses a still from the video in a context that goes viral - maybe altering the image itself or putting it next to another, something like that.

Does this count?

@BrunoParga Say a human was streaming on twitch, and was showing some AI-generated video; the human randomly pauses this video and for some reason that still goes viral, then this would count.

If the still does not go viral by itself, but only after a human adds some authorship such as altering the image, then this would not count unless the authorship was very minor. If the still is placed next to another image and this goes viral, then this would only count if the AI-generated image was the main "subject" of the final meme, and the second image was playing only a limited role in the semantics of the meme.

I think this criteria is inevitably subjective, but that's the general idea.

@RemNi thank you, I think this does clarify things. There's just one thing that I'd still like to ask - in the first paragraph, are you referring to an AI taking a still from a human Twitch stream and that still going viral? I'm not clear where the AI comes in, in that scenario.

@BrunoParga ah yes, I wasn't very clear in that paragraph. Sorry about that. Have edited it.

@BrunoParga Thanks for the questions! I'll try and update the criteria with these details

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