Will the Phase 3 Trials of Olpasiran be a Success?
Basic
2
80
2026
54%
chance

Resolves as YES if the Phase 3 trials of Olpasiran demonstrate:



Efficacy:

  • The trials must show a statistically significant reduction in lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] levels in participants compared to baseline, achieving at least a 50% reduction in median Lp(a) levels.

  • A high percentage of participants achieving Lp(a) levels below 125 nmol/L and 75 nmol/L.

  • Consistent reduction of Lp(a) levels maintained over the trial period.

Safety:

  • The trials must confirm that Olpasiran is safe for participants, with no significant adverse events that would outweigh the benefits.

  • Minimal and manageable side effects.

  • Few serious adverse events linked to the drug's administration.

Regulatory Progress:

  • The trial results must be sufficient to warrant progression towards regulatory approval, as determined by the relevant regulatory bodies or the sponsoring company (Amgen).


Background: Olpasiran is a small interfering RNA (siRNA) therapeutic designed to reduce the production of apolipoprotein(a) in the liver by targeting the mRNA that encodes apolipoprotein(a). Elevated Lp(a) levels are a known risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and effective reduction of these levels could significantly impact patient outcomes.

The ongoing Phase 3 trial, which began in January 2023, aims to confirm the promising results observed in earlier phases. This trial is crucial for determining the long-term efficacy and safety profile of Olpasiran, with results expected to be published around 2025.

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