Will AOH1996 succeed in Phase I trial?
85
8.8k
2027
81%
chance

This market concerns AOH1996, a cancer therapeutic reported in this paper.

It is currently in Phase I trial.

This market resolves to YES, if a Phase II trial is submitted and starts for any type of cancer.

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Some quick googling indicates that this is underpriced based on base rates:
> The observed success rates of academic drug discovery and development were 75% at phase I [...]

predicts YES

In my opinion it is wrong to expect this to hover around 56% as there are many confounding variables that increase chances of success here (eg. previous compound already tested, new mechanism, studied longer than an average drug in preclinical setting etc.).

I am very minimally invested (and will remain so) to not skew the odds of resolution.

Base rate for new drugs are bad.

@SebastianWorms true, but this is a drug where the effect is very easy to test on animals (eg. not a psychiatric drug) and Phase I is a dose + side effect finding trial, I think it's more common for drug proposals to die at phase II

predicts NO

@AlexAmadori Yeah, the side effect is the killer for cancer drugs in clinical trials, but good point.

predicts NO

@SebastianWorms https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6409418/

Ok I was wrong, should have checked before betting, this has 57% probability to pass phase 1 for oncology drugs.

@SebastianWorms buying at 55 based on that stat

@jbca @SebastianWorms Isn't it a 78.7% probability to pass phase 1 for oncology drugs when considering only lead indications, as should be the case with AOH1996?

predicts NO

@AntoineDusseauxSorry a bit sleep deprived but I'm not sure what you're referring to. One of the other tables on the paper?

predicts YES

@SebastianWorms According to Table 2, 57.6% is the probability of passing phase 1 for oncology drugs across all indications.

Often, a single drug can have potential therapeutic effects against multiple conditions. For example, a medicine initially developed for rheumatoid arthritis (its "lead indication") might show promise later, through the course of research, in treating psoriasis. The company could decide first to pursue clinical trials for rheumatoid arthritis and later for psoriasis.

According to the article: "A significantly different pattern emerges when we consider the phase POS for lead indications. [...] we find an increase in the POS for Phase 1". Indeed, Table 2 gives 78.7% for the probability of passing phase 1 for oncology drugs when considering only lead indications.

I understand that the ongoing AOH1996 Phase 1 trial is for its lead indication so the base probability is 78.7%, not 57.6%.

predicts NO

@adssx Yeah, that's probably a fair point.