Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?
16
40
1k
2035
28%
chance

Drug development currently involves the use of AI to search for new compounds but still relies on various phases of testing on human trials to ensure efficacy and safety.

An option to skip human testing would be to rely on accurate simulations of the human body, but this would require advanced models that can accurately represent the complex interactions within human biology, including genetic variations and long-term effects. Achieving this requires vast computational power, sophisticated algorithms, a deeper integration of diverse biological data and obviously overcoming regulations.

As far as I understand, the computational requirements for such an effort would be in the realm of exaflops, not far from current supercomputers.

What are the odds to have an AI generated drug that skips human testing within a decade?

Feel free to comment and share your thoughts and insights!

(The drug should be approved by a major health organization to resolve true.)

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How does this resolve if right-to-try laws are greatly expanded? Do the drugs that become available count as approved, and if so what needs to be satisfied?

@DanielCotter I think it would count as Yes. What do you think?

@SimoneRomeo Seems like a reasonable judgement. I just wanted to clarify since it seemed like that contributes a lot of likelihood relative to getting the computational biology fully worked

I think this is a major issue to solve and it could have a huge impact on society. Just think that the first COVID vaccines took just few days to develop and ten months to test. Testing through reliable simulations can be huge

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