Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
96
316
1.6k
2025
58%
chance

I will defer resolution value to reputable news organizations

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ40 of YES

As in, will it be approved by the FDA? Or are you thinking of some efficacy target, or something else?

predicts YES

@GavrielK basically will resolve to YES if results are vaguely like the Phase 2 results. A serious increase in side effects or reduction in efficacy would result in a NO. I want to explicitly defer this value judgement to outside experts, though. So if Scott Alexander says its good news, or Vox, or etc, I will follow their lead

@LivInTheLookingGlass Defaulting to experts is fine, although what you said is a bit confusing. It looks to me like the phase 2 study had different endpoints (safety, immunogenicity) than the phase 3 does (effectivness in preventing Lyme disease). They will probably still report on safety and immunogenicity, so it's entirely possible that Phase 3 shows the same safety and immunogenicity signals as Phase 2, but also shows that it is not sufficiently effective in preventing the disease.

More related questions