Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?
11
364
2028
39%
chance

Recently the small molecule drug AOH1996 has recieved some attention on social media for its potential to treat a variety of cancers with basically no side effects in animal models. Here is a good overview: https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/new-mode-cancer-treatment

The question here is whether this drug will succeed in Phase II trials. Unlike the ongoing Phase I trials, which are designed to show safety, Phase II trails must show efficacy. Success can unambiguously be defined as either FDA approval (under an accelerated approval process, which this drug may get) or advancing to Phase III trails. (Note that in Phase III trials a drug is evaluated for comparative efficacy against other treatment options).

For clarification, it is fine if the ultimate approved/advanced therapy combines AOH1996 with another treatment.

If 2027 ends with neither condition met, this question resolves NO.

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