Recently the small molecule drug AOH1996 has recieved some attention on social media for its potential to treat a variety of cancers with basically no side effects in animal models. Here is a good overview: https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/new-mode-cancer-treatment
The question here is whether this drug will succeed in Phase II trials. Unlike the ongoing Phase I trials, which are designed to show safety, Phase II trails must show efficacy. Success can unambiguously be defined as either FDA approval (under an accelerated approval process, which this drug may get) or advancing to Phase III trails. (Note that in Phase III trials a drug is evaluated for comparative efficacy against other treatment options).
For clarification, it is fine if the ultimate approved/advanced therapy combines AOH1996 with another treatment.
If 2027 ends with neither condition met, this question resolves NO.
1,000Registry check as of today: AOH1996 has two Phase 1 studies on ClinicalTrials.gov and no Phase 2. The solid-tumour study (NCT05227326) started in August 2022, plans 92 participants and lists a primary completion date of September 2029; a second Phase 1 in relapsed or refractory AML (NCT06763341) started in July 2025 with 12 participants and primary completion in January 2027. City of Hope reported in April 2024 that the first six patients had no drug-related toxicities at doses reaching the levels that worked in animals, which is a safety signal, not an efficacy one. Getting past Phase 2 by the end of 2027 would need a Phase 2 to be registered, run and read out in about 15 months while the Phase 1 is still enrolling. For calibration on the preclinical claim: the fastest in-vivo efficacy read for an oral cancer drug outside mice is a dog with a spontaneous tumour (the NCI's Comparative Oncology Trials Consortium exists for this), and no such study of AOH1996 has been published. The same logic is why aging drugs are being tested for lifespan in dogs first; registry (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/
