Will the pre-clinical results on the cancer drug AOH1996 be broadly confirmed by independent team(s)?
30
1kṀ3446
2031
26%
chance

I have identified 5 main claims from the AOH1996 paper (https://www.cell.com/cell-chemical-biology/fulltext/S2451-9456(23)00221-0?rss=yes)

1) Biochemical mechanism of action

2) Achieves inhibition of growth in many cancer types in-vitro at concentrations around 300nM or less

3) No toxicity to cultured human non-cancerous calles up to 10 μM concentrations

4) Favorable pharmacokinetics (availability after oral doses) in animals

5) Reduced xenograft tumor growth in mice

The question resolves YES if A) at least three of those claims are tested in published research from teams independent of the original AOH1996 paper authors AND B) At most one is found mostly incorrect. If there's no suspicion of problems, I'll take pre-registered studies with external oversight (e.g. a clinical trial) as "independent" even if the original authors are involved.

The question resolves NO if at least two of those claims are contradicted by later research.

If no attempts to replicate/confirm/disprove at least three of the claims are made in 8 years, this market resolves NA.

This is biomed, so I won't be particularly pedantic about what exactly means "confirmed" or "correct" - e.g. if another team reports inhibition of cancer growth in vitro at 800nM, I'd say it is correct as it is the same order of magnitude. No inhibition up to 1.5μM would probably be a problem, if it is for a set of cancer lines substantially overlapping those reported in the original paper.

When applicable, I'll also take clinical results as possible evidence (e.g. if dose-finding studies in humans indicate good pharmacokinetics, I'll take that as confirming the corresponding claim; OTOH lack of efficacy in human trials does not necessarily imply lack of in-vitro efficacy).

If there are conflicting reports from different labs, I'll use my best judgement to reconcile them and may wait for additional results.

As the resolution is partly subjective I will not bet on this market.

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