Resolves as YES if at least 5 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2029.
Different number of robots:
/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact
/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact (this question)
/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac
/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac
/RemNi/will-50k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac
/RemNi/will-100k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa
/RemNi/will-200k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa
/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-7bcec2feb6cc
/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact
/RemNi/will-2m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact
Different years:
/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-e510db70b0a2
/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact (this question)
/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-cada66fe0215
/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-8b5c5fb5bd63
Other questions for 2029:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2029
/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-7e6517a06d7e
/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14
/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-7b1d4b5ec34
These humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question.
Each robot must be between 1.25 and 3 meters tall when standing up, and weigh between 25 and 500 kg. Furthermore, each robot must be able to lift a 10kg box off the floor and walk with it for 10 meters in order to qualify.
Related questions
@Felle right now I think there are a number of prototypes in different research labs. I would guess fewer than 100 meet the criteria of this question.
As for the source of resolution, current plan is to make an estimate based on the best information available at the market's closing time. I'm assuming this will be similar to how estimates of the number of electric vehicles manufactured are currently made, but there will inevitably be some uncertainty here.
Right now a single external source that gathers this data does not exist. However, it's likely that there will be a source we can refer to at some point in the next few years.
@Felle ideally someone will put together a Wikipedia page with a list of known humanoid robots, and estimates for the number of each that have been manufactured. Then it will be possible to determine which among this list meet the question's criteria
@Felle there is already this page: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Bipedal_humanoid_robots
I'm assuming it will be a bit more fleshed out in 2029