Will 500K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?
18
127
350
2031
70%
chance

Resolves as YES if at least 500 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2031.

Different number of robots:

/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-e5827a19aecb

/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-8b5c5fb5bd63

/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-9dad526dc238

/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-dfdcca40f9e1

/RemNi/will-50k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-0cc08ff63d45

/RemNi/will-100k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-0adc84c2523d

/RemNi/will-200k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-abb3fe9a6911

/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-9dce68aa89e4 (this question)

/RemNi/will-a-million-humanoid-robots-have

/RemNi/will-2m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0ebf458206fd

Different years:

/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-ec311a558859

/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-7bcec2feb6cc

/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa

/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-9dce68aa89e4 (this question)

Other questions for 2031:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2031

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-fa1926d83aec

/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before

/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem

These humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question.

Each robot must be between 1.25 and 3 meters tall when standing up, and weigh between 25 and 500 kg. Furthermore, each robot must be able to lift a 10kg box off the floor and walk with it for 10 meters in order to qualify.

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Why bother creating humanoid robot when non humanoid design if better for almost all things dude

@Seeker The environments we build are designed for humans. It's not impossible that there will be other types of robot that become more popular in the long run, but it's certainly looking like humanoid robots will be a core trend in the mid term.

@RemNi Yes i agree. Most places in need of robots are designed in suboptimal ways to make it comfortable for humans. I can see lots of robots but not humanoid robots because 1. it's creepy and 2. it's suboptimal and 3. which areas do u expect to see humanoid robots in?

@Seeker I think humanoid robots are going to be the most general (can operate in any environment a human can), so will be the easiest design to manufacture at scale. For any given environment it's probably straightforward to come up with a better design, the issue is that specialisation would mean less demand for that new design, and therefore higher cost. Humanoid robots are the design that can expect the highest demand overall.

@RemNi Do you expect humanoid robots for

  1. cleaning

    1. I dont cuz humans back hurts while cleaning floors and cleaning toilets sucks too

  2. car driving

    1. it doesnt look like it

  3. cashier

    1. maybbeeee

  4. scientist

    1. idts

give me examples where a humanoid robot makes sense?

@Seeker I think anything that involves carrying objects from point A to point B in an industrial setting is probably the simplest application. Cleaning is harder because it requires more dexterity. Cashier is hard to anticipate, since a lot of the perceived value for the customer is the human interaction.

@RemNi Forklifts??

@RemNi yeah cashier could be human or humanoid

@Seeker forklifts can't climb stairs

@RemNi neither can humans carrying equipment thats why u have lifts.

@Seeker sure, but a lot of that infrastructure is built with the assumption that carrying things up stairs is not sustainable in a production setting. As soon as you have a robot that can do that all day, then suddenly there's less incentive to build expensive things like lifts.

@RemNi its cheaper to operate a conveyer belt with lesser maintenance than to move stuff with a less efficient humanoid robot or a human even on teh same floor

@RemNi does the robot not require energy?

@Seeker yes absolutely conveyer belts are cheaper to run, but there's a high barrier to entry to put in a conveyer belt system. If you already have that infrastructure in place it's less compelling to switch. If you don't have that infrastructure in place, then robots are potentially a more viable option

@RemNi hmmm maybe if they're cheaper to purchase than to install a system like conveyer belt. If it's more expensive to uproot the rooms then yes humanoid might be desirable.

I wonder if such a humanoid robot (in factories or warehouses) be voice activated?