Will Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei flee (travel) to Russia by any of the following dates?
Resolution criteria:
This market resolves YES if credible reporting from major international media (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, FT, NYT, NEXTA, TIME) confirms that Ali Khamenei has physically departed Iran and entered Russia.
Circumstances: In Iran there is internal unrest as of January 2026, regime is facing partial loss of control, in Iran mass protests lead to regime instability.
Unofficial rumors, unverified leaks, or speculative reporting do not qualify.
The Maidan Dignity Revolution in Ukraine lasted more than 6 months and resulted in President fleeing to Russia in 2014.
The market resolves NO if none of the below deadlines (times) are met.
Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): One-way diplomatic travel to Russia counts as fleeing - Khamenei could travel there and attempt to rule Iran from Russia.
Ambiguous scenarios may resolve N/A - For example, if he makes only a very short trip (1-2 days) and returns quickly.
This is a single-answer market - Only one answer can be correct; all other options resolve NO.
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@AnT Actually, "diplomatic" travel one-way during these unusually intense and uncontrolled protests may itself be evidence of flee.
Yes, one-way travel to Russia would count - he could travel there and effectively try to rule Iran from Russia.
If something ambiguous happens, the market may resolve N/A (for example, if he makes only a very short trip and returns within 1–2 days). I do not believe that scenario as without him present in Iran, there might be a coup.
Only one answer can be correct; all other options resolve NO.
If anyone believes that China or Russia would send special forces to suppress protests in Iran, that is not realistic. The core basis of the regime lies within Iran’s Shi’a Muslim population. If non-Muslim foreign forces (kyafirs) were seen killing Iranians, that core support base would likely turn against Khamenei.
Chinese and Russian personnel are generally distinguishable from Iranians, making covert involvement implausible. The deployment of foreign special force in Iran in support of Khamenei would therefore be counterproductive rather than stabilizing.
I also believe that most Muslim countries, possibly with the exception of Iraq would be unwilling to provide direct security support to Khamenei. Under these conditions, a Ukraine-style revolutionary 2014 scenario cannot be ruled out and is entirely possible.