First nuclear weapon detonate: which country is responsible for it
Nuclear tests don't count, only actual weapon used for war or strategic purpose connecting to war.
Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirmed that a nuclear detonation under a 'last warning' doctrine would count. This includes scenarios such as:
A single nuclear strike
Intended as a communication strategy or to show resolve
In response to an enemy threatening vital interests, even if the threat is through conventional means.
1,000People are also trading
France has an official strike first doctrine known as last warning: detonating one nuke against an enemy threatening vital interests through conventional means, to show resolve, as basically a coms strategy. Itโs quite different from other countries who are at least ambiguous about first strike. It makes it I think a fairly serious contender for this market. Importantly, vital interests typically include the EU. If you think the risk of Russia invading an Eastern EU country is serious, then French first strike should be considered as relatively likely.
The US uses a nuke every 40 years in the average, the leftover period is 8 years, so rough estimate of the base rate for them using a nuke at all is 20% (though here the question is different). They also have a bigger arsenal than most others and are less likely to suffer serious consequences if they just use one or a few nukes in isolation for tactical reasons. Small actors like North Korea or the UK on the other hand have much more to lose by triggering a nuclear confrontation. Edit: base rate is likely off because of strong time autocorrelation in nuke usage
@Quadrifold It's kind of hateful to design a market to likely resolve N/A when you could easily just add a "nobody" option.