First nuclear weapon detonate: which country is responsible for it
Nuclear tests don't count, only actual weapon used for war or strategic purpose connecting to war.
Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirmed that a nuclear detonation under a 'last warning' doctrine would count. This includes scenarios such as:
A single nuclear strike
Intended as a communication strategy or to show resolve
In response to an enemy threatening vital interests, even if the threat is through conventional means.
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France has an official strike first doctrine known as last warning: detonating one nuke against an enemy threatening vital interests through conventional means, to show resolve, as basically a coms strategy. It’s quite different from other countries who are at least ambiguous about first strike. It makes it I think a fairly serious contender for this market. Importantly, vital interests typically include the EU. If you think the risk of Russia invading an Eastern EU country is serious, then French first strike should be considered as relatively likely.
@mariopasquato Indeed other should include this. I think 15% is low. There are two core scenarios for detonation: one linked to Russian expansionism, one to Chinese expansionism. Former is a lot likelier as Russian expansionism threatens relevant nuclear powers (FR, UK) much more than China (US, through Taiwan). Between FR and UK France is somewhat likelier to detonate first, given last warning doctrine.
@RaphaelBon aren’t both France and the UK superior to Russia in terms of conventional capabilities though? If this is the case it would seems dangerous and pointless to escalate to a nuclear confrontation.
@mariopasquato For sure it’s unlikely but we’re comparing unlikely events. Also, when it came to the Soviet Union, there was a relative consensus that France would strike first if the USSR invaded West Germany. You rightly point out that Russia is less of conventional a threat than the USSR, but just to say that thinking has existed around such a scenario. And anyway, who else could France’s last warning doctrine be for, if not Russia.
The US uses a nuke every 40 years in the average, the leftover period is 8 years, so rough estimate of the base rate for them using a nuke at all is 20% (though here the question is different). They also have a bigger arsenal than most others and are less likely to suffer serious consequences if they just use one or a few nukes in isolation for tactical reasons. Small actors like North Korea or the UK on the other hand have much more to lose by triggering a nuclear confrontation. Edit: base rate is likely off because of strong time autocorrelation in nuke usage
@Quadrifold It's kind of hateful to design a market to likely resolve N/A when you could easily just add a "nobody" option.