When will a nuclear weapon be used for military purposes?
7
623Ṁ4992200
1%
2023
5%
2024
13%
2025
5%
2026–2027
5%
2028-2030
7%
2031–2035
6%
2036–2040
9%
2041–2050
5%
2051–2060
5%
2061–2070
5%
2071–2080
5%
2081–2090
5%
2091–2100
21%
Not before 2101
The question will be resolved to the first year (after 1945) during which any entity intentionally detonate a nuclear device that causes substantial damage, harm, or casualties as an act of aggression to advance military objectives against an adversary.
The detonation must be a hostile action deployed for a military purpose, not a test or accident.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
Will a nuclear device be used offensively before April 1, 2025?
1% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?
9% chance
Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?
26% chance
When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place?
Will nuclear weapons be used on Earth before 2050?
39% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
15% chance
What will be the next country to come into possession of a nuclear weapon?
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
10% chance
What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?