Largely in response to current events in Israel and President Biden's handling of them, Muslim leaders in swing states have threatened to "abandon" him in the 2024 Presidential election. Will this actually happen in any meaningful sense? Acknowledging that applying an objective standard to such a question can't help but be arbitrary to some extent, the below-described methodology will be employed.

CAIR releases an exit poll after Presidential elections tracking the reported answers of Muslim households (2020's poll results here). Biden's Muslim support figure will be defined as (percent answering yes regarding having voted, as a decimal) multiplied by (percent answering yes to having voted for Biden, as a decimal). In 2020, this figure was 0.84 * 0.69 = 0.5769. If this figure falls below 0.5, that would signal that fewer than half of eligible Muslim voters cast a vote for Biden (at least insofar as they were willing to admit), and the question will resolve yes, representing as it does a serious, discernible shift in political sentiment and support. If it remains at or above 0.5, then it will resolve no.

If Biden does not appear on the ballot for the 2024 Presidential election, or if CAIR does not produce an exit poll for 2024 as a point of comparison, this question will be canceled.