How much of the popular vote will Joe Biden win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
US Politics2024 US Presidential ElectionPoliticsTrumpJoe Biden
Basic
187
Ṁ135k
2026
2%
More than 37.45% of the vote (what George H. W. Bush got in the 1992 election)
2%
More than 38.47% of the vote (what Barry Goldwater got in the 1964 election)
2%
More than 40.56% of the vote (what Walter Mondale got in the 1984 election)
2%
More than 40.71% of the vote (what Bob Dole got in the 1996 election)
2%
More than 41.01% of the vote (what Jimmy Carter got in the 1980 election)
2%
More than 41.97% of the vote (what Adlai Stevenson II got in the 1956 election)
2%
More than 42.72% of the vote (what Hubert Humphrey got in the 1968 election)
2%
More than 43.01% of the vote (what Bill Clinton got in the 1992 election)
2%
More than 43.42% of the vote (what Richard Nixon got in the 1968 election)
2%
More than 44.33% of the vote (what Adlai Stevenson II got in the 1952 election)
2%
More than 45.65% of the vote (what John McCain got in the 2008 election)
2%
More than 46.09% of the vote (what Donald Trump got in the 2016 election)
2%
More than 46.85% of the vote (what Donald Trump got in the 2020 election)
1.6%
More than 47.20% of the vote (what Mitt Romney got in the 2012 election)
2%
More than 47.86% of the vote (what George W. Bush got in the 2000 election)
1%
More than 48.02% of the vote (What Gerald Ford got in the 1976 election)
1%
More than 48.18% of the vote (what Hillary Clinton got in the 2016 election)
1%
More than 48.27% of the vote (what John Kerry got in the 2004 election)
1%
More than 48.38% of the vote (what Al Gore got in the 2000 election)
1%
More than 49.24% of the vote (what Bill Clinton got in the 1996 election)

This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about Biden's bid to other modern presidential election results.

A combination of the Federal Election Commission's numbers and Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve this market. The Federal Election Commission's numbers will be used for the 2024 election.

Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election - e.g. the Joe Biden answer should not be taken as 51.31% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total he actually got according to the FEC (81,283,501/158,429,631=~51.305744%) or according to Dave Leip's numbers for elections that predate the FEC reports.

Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.

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31 Comments
164 Holders
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Kamala version! I've adjusted the resolution criteria so that it will resolve much closer to the election, no more waiting 2 years for the FEC report

@Tripping These can all resolve to NO, right?

What if there's a "write-in with Biden" campaign?

(I agree they should resolve no)

Oh I did not see the skulls of those before me in the comments below. Guess this is an election-day risk-free-return measurement market now!

man I already compromised a lot by saying I'd consider resolving 2 years early

Do not bet with tripping. Bad faith resolver

you can make a case with the mods if you want, they have authority to overrule market creators

@JackP I don't think this is true

I think I'm being reasonable, the event in question hasn't even happened yet

you are being reasonable, don't listen to them

opened a Ṁ1,000 More than 48.27% of ... NO at 2% order

@JackP Is that based on not resolving this market alone, or other past markets? I think based on the resolution criteria listed and the clarification here, it should wait. It does, unfortunately, become a Manifold interest rate play now, at least on the existing options. I put up some limit orders if you have positions you want to get out of.

How about a “More than 1000 votes” option?

good idea

bought Ṁ269 More than 48.27% of ... NO

@Tripping

Yes?

resolves no

Election hasn't happened yet

biden will win <1%

You can resolve no. In good faith you can't keep market open. Create new market if you want to know write in votes. He'd be lucky to get 0.1%

This market wasn’t going to resolve until the FEC report came out anyway (~Q4 2025), so it should stay open.

Someone read the description!

What is Joe Biden's path to get over 37.45% of the vote?

Ok. Could you be convinced otherwise?

Everyone read it. That would be fair if he ran and the numbers were close. I think you are being ridiculous.

I'll give it a bit, if once the election has happened and there's no big public write in campaign or Biden resurgence, I'll consider resolving early, before the FEC report comes out

early 😂😂😂😂😂

Joe could be held against his will in some dungeon wearing a mad max mask

Or you could be chill and resolve…

fine, I'll wait for the Dem convention. If they don't nominate him there I'll resolve NO

That’s reasonable, thanks.

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