How much of the popular vote will Joe Biden win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?

US Politics•Politics•2024 US Presidential Election•Joe Biden•Trump

143

928

Ṁ17K

Ṁ10K

2026

ALL

96%

More than 37.45% of the vote (what George H. W. Bush got in the 1992 election)

92%

More than 38.47% of the vote (what Barry Goldwater got in the 1964 election)

93%

More than 40.56% of the vote (what Walter Mondale got in the 1984 election)

93%

More than 40.71% of the vote (what Bob Dole got in the 1996 election)

91%

More than 41.01% of the vote (what Jimmy Carter got in the 1980 election)

91%

More than 41.97% of the vote (what Adlai Stevenson II got in the 1956 election)

91%

More than 42.72% of the vote (what Hubert Humphrey got in the 1968 election)

91%

More than 43.01% of the vote (what Bill Clinton got in the 1992 election)

88%

More than 43.42% of the vote (what Richard Nixon got in the 1968 election)

89%

More than 44.33% of the vote (what Adlai Stevenson II got in the 1952 election)

89%

More than 45.65% of the vote (what John McCain got in the 2008 election)

90%

More than 46.09% of the vote (what Donald Trump got in the 2016 election)

89%

More than 46.85% of the vote (what Donald Trump got in the 2020 election)

88%

More than 47.20% of the vote (what Mitt Romney got in the 2012 election)

79%

More than 47.86% of the vote (what George W. Bush got in the 2000 election)

77%

More than 48.02% of the vote (What Gerald Ford got in the 1976 election)

72%

More than 48.18% of the vote (what Hillary Clinton got in the 2016 election)

74%

More than 48.27% of the vote (what John Kerry got in the 2004 election)

74%

More than 48.38% of the vote (what Al Gore got in the 2000 election)

63%

More than 49.24% of the vote (what Bill Clinton got in the 1996 election)

This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about Biden's bid to other modern presidential election results.

A combination of the Federal Election Commission's numbers and Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve this market. The Federal Election Commission's numbers will be used for the 2024 election.

Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election - e.g. the Joe Biden answer should not be taken as 51.31% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total he actually got according to the FEC (81,283,501/158,429,631=~51.305744%) or according to Dave Leip's numbers for elections that predate the FEC reports.

Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.

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