Will Joe Biden receive more than 50.00% of the popular vote in the 2024 general presidential election?
34
112
1k
2025
47%
chance

I’ll resolve it early if e.g. he drops out of the running or dies before then but otherwise I’ll wait for the official count to come in.

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Someone has to ask... is 50.001% enough to resolve yes?

@GCS No, just to be consistent and clear across these markets I created, I'll actually round the result to 2 decimals and it has to be >50.00%.

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