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MANIFOLD
Who or what will President Trump go after before the end of 2025?
198
Ṁ6.7kṀ87k
Jul 1
83%
Panama
73%
JB Pritzker
70%
Public Libraries
69%
Alexander Vindman
69%
Progressive YouTube Influencers
68%
Tucker Carlson
61%
The Metropolitan Museum of Art
59%
Bruce Springsteen
58%
Zohran Mamdani
55%
The Atlantic
55%
Nancy Pelosi
54%
Disney
54%
the National Archives
51%
Any professional sports league
50%
The American Psychiatric Association
49%
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
48%
Denmark
46%
Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)
44%
Seth Myers
43%
Bill Barr

Between inauguration day and the end of the year.

‘Go after’ in the sense of making their lives difficult in some public way, causing them financial hardship, etc.. In most cases, a post or something spoken during an interview only will not count, will have to be accompanied by some specific action. I will be the final judge of any edge-cases but will read any sources or arguments made in the comments.

Let’s see where this goes. N/As on added items that are ridiculously broad or way too difficult to prove.

If not elected, not elected resolves yes, everything else no immediately after election results.

  • Update 2025-02-01 (PST): 'Going after someone' includes actions taken against loyalists, such as Liz Cheney & Jan 6 Committee. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about what action would qualify for the 'Biden's family' option, the creator gave an example: removing Secret Service protection.

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This market is cursed. @Predictor whats your plan?

@MachiNi Give me a break. This is all a complete mess. I will make the calls, give me a few more days.

bought Ṁ20 NO

@FastFourier It seems like he was sued in 2018 but that lawsuit didn't go anywhere and in 2024 was dropped altogether

bought Ṁ110 YES

@FastFourier From Wikipedia, Trump sued Selzer: "Trump filed the threatened lawsuit against Selzer on December 16, 2024 in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Iowa.[29][30][31]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Selzer

@Predictor resolve?

@MachiNi @traders I extended the close time. A lot of these had fairly ambiguous pricing. I don't see a clear list of how they should resolve. Consider this a bounty for research. This isn't intended to change what counts for the market, relevant events still need to be from 2025.

bought Ṁ100 YES
bought Ṁ230 YES

@CryptoNeoLiberalist Resolves YES?

bought Ṁ10 YES

RFK Jr on the mass shooting in Minnesota: "We're launching studies on the potential contribution of some of the SSRI drugs and some of the other psychiatric drugs that might be contributing to violence." https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lxhkplfx7j2g

@CryptoNeoLiberalist You’ve got to be fucking kidding me.

reposted

@CryptoNeoLiberalist You’ve got to be fucking kidding me.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Seems likely to me

I haven't verified these myself, but perhaps they should all resolve YES: