Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2026?
US Politics
17
75
Ṁ350
2027
32%
chance

Resolves YES if Donald Trump spends any positive amount of time in prison while serving a sentence before the end of 2026. It doesn't count if he is held while awaiting trial or sentencing. House arrest also doesn't count, it must be an official prison. However, it DOES count if he is held in prison awaiting execution or similar.

Resolves NO otherwise

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Question. Does Trump need that all juros in the D.C. trial to condem him as gulty?

@MP Yes, US now requires unanimous juries (and federal government did even before a recent Supreme Court dexision). Generally, failure to reach unanimity is a mistrial and the prosecution can try again if desired.

@Jason Are all crimes like that?

Created a market that includes home confinement, which I think is more likely given practical problems with his entitlement to Secret Service protection:

Will Trump be sentenced by any US criminal court to a term of incarceration or home confinement by 12/2026?
50% chance. I included home confinement in part because of the practical problems of sentencing someone statutorily entitled to Secret Service protection to prison. Any sentence based on conviction in a criminal case counts. Pretrial confinement does not count (although this would be extremely unli…

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