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If Trump wins, will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2026?
15
Ṁ280Ṁ568
2027
10%
chance

  • Update 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Impeachment and conviction by the Senate will not count as being found guilty of a crime for the purposes of this market.

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Would impeachment and conviction by the Senate count?

@EvanDaniel never knew that counted as a crime, is it one?

@strutheo "High crimes and misdemeanors" is part of the relevant language in the Constitution: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_crimes_and_misdemeanors#United_States

@EvanDaniel hm but does that mean he can be impeached for something other than high crimes and misdemeanors

i guess if they NAME the crime?

can congress find him GUILTY of a crime though?

@strutheo I think I'd lean toward is shouldn't count -- "high crimes and misdemeanors" is a term of art, and "high crimes" are different than "crimes", not a subset. Even though the language of "guilty" and "convict" is shared, they're not really the same thing.

Claude has me at least somewhat convinced that's the better approach for a prediction market:

https://claude.ai/share/a442ce7b-f82c-493a-a123-24dd58f2f3c8

@EvanDaniel ok not counting it

@EvanDaniel I think "high crimes" are "crimes", but they're not defined in criminal law, they're defined at whim by the legislative branch.

That said, either approach is fine.

Another edge case is that some foreign court finds him guilty, eg he likely violated Iranian law.

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