I have something to declare: Moon Race Two has begun!

In the 1960s there was the first Moon Race. This was a race between the USA and the USSR to be the first to land a man on the Moon. Now there is a second Moon Race. This is a race between the USA and China to be the first to land a woman on the Moon.

Also, you can find my analysis (which is very basic) for this question here: https://calderknight.net/woman-on-the-moon.html

Where I arrive at these probabilities:

The most important points I make are these:

• The USA's stated decision that at least one of the two astronauts in their next Moon landing will be a person of color greatly skews things in favour of the women of colour

• The fact that the USA's women have to beat out eight others to be chosen, compared to the two Chinese women astronauts who only have to beat out each other, makes the Chinese women the best bets

@calderknight What sources are you using for Chinese astronauts? Flight reports?

@JoshuaWilkes nothing sophisticated. I just looked at Wikipedia. I notice that there's a third, unnamed woman who was selected to be part of Group 3 (2020), which makes the Chinese Astronauts slightly less good picks. And there's a Group 4 with an undetermined number of female astronauts. Not good for my bets. I will have to think about how much China is likely to value experience versus youth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_astronauts

@calderknight I think the 'comments' I would make would be (a) Manifold has China way behind the US for the next crewed landings, which obviously matters a great deal as a final multiplier in your model (although you might disagree) and (b) obviously China applies a great deal of secrecy to its space programme. Based on past behaviour, we won't know the name of the first Chinese to walk on the moon until the day before that flight launches, and I think it's not at all obvious there will be a woman on that crew.

I guess also, and this is not much use to you, I just have quite a large gut feeling that the first Chinese woman on the moon will be neither of those two, but rather someone selected specifically for lunar missions.

@calderknight

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/the-first-chinese-woman-to-walk-on?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

The first Chinese woman to walk on the Moon will be neither Liu Yang nor Wang Yaping

50% chance. Extends as necessary

@JoshuaWilkes yeah, I haven't looked an exact probability estimate of China beating the USA, but here's my probabilities by country

I find it hard to believe that China would turn down the opportunity to have the first woman on the Moon. There's the Maoism "Women hold up half the sky". And there's Chang'e and her moonbase.

And it's such a landmark accomplishment, are the Chinese really immune to that kind of thinking? They would be beating the USA at its stated goal of bringing the first woman onto the lunar surface (https://www.space.com/artemis-3-moon-landing-mission). Maybe the Chinese don't think like this, but it would be a "victory for Communism".

Anyway, I will make a market about whether they have a woman astronaut on their first Moon landing, conditional on the USA not beating them to the Moon.

And about the secrecy, you may have a point (I will look into it). I see that the crew for missions are generally not announced until the day before. And the names of astronauts are not revealed until their first mission. But how likely is it that they will select a woman who has never been into space before? (I have, at this point in time, no clue).

Certainly, I think I was too bullish on the two known Chinese female astronauts. If I'm right about China being a real contender to beat the US to the Moon, and I'm right that China will select a woman for the mission, but I'm wrong about who that woman is likely to be, then "Other" is really underpriced.

@JoshuaWilkes

Either Liu Yang or Wang Yaping or Jessica Watkins or Jasmine Moghbeli