Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman?

Question

If both women and non-women take the next step at the same time, resolves to the fraction of women among them. If for some reason it is not clear whether a woman was first, resolves to the fraction of women among the crew of the mission.

Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:

Only count individuals who actually set foot on the lunar surface.

Crew members who remain inside a landed vehicle and do not exit are not counted.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (37 traders, as of Sep 12, 2026).