Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, during the first crewed lunar surface landing of the Artemis program, at least one of the astronauts who descends to and physically sets foot on the Moon's surface is a woman.

This market resolves to NO if the first crewed lunar landing occurs and the landing crew—specifically those who physically set foot on the surface—is entirely male.

Rules and Edge Cases:

• Only Surface Walkers Count: Resolution is based strictly on the astronauts who descend to and walk on the lunar surface. Crew members who remain in lunar orbit (e.g., aboard the Orion spacecraft or Gateway) do not count.

• Landing Requirement: The lunar landing itself must successfully take place for this market to resolve. Crew assignments, launch, or lunar transit alone do not trigger resolution.

• Program Cancellation or Rebranding: If the Artemis program is cancelled, or if its name is officially retired or replaced before any crewed lunar landing occurs, this market will resolve to N/A.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined based on official post-landing mission logs, press conferences, and confirmation from NASA.

Background

In February 2026, NASA revised the flight sequence of the Artemis program, redesignating Artemis III as an Earth-orbit demonstration flight to test docking and rendezvous capabilities rather than a lunar landing. The crew for Artemis III—announced on June 9, 2026—comprises Randy Bresnik, Luca Parmitano, Frank Rubio, and Andre Douglas, all of whom are men.

Because Artemis III will not land on the lunar surface, the first crewed lunar landing of the Artemis program is expected to take place on a later mission, with Artemis IV currently targeted as the first landing attempt. While NASA has repeatedly stated its goal of landing "the first woman and the first person of color" on the Moon, this market tracks whether that goal will be realized during the program's very first successful crewed landing.

This description was generated by AI.