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Poll from March 2005 (two months after George W. Bush's second inauguration)

sorry my brain is broken it's from February

@ZaneMiller even then some were saying Obama... The speculation began right after the 2004 election

@ZaneMiller low-information environment tbh, and Obama would have been trading at like 4% on Manifold

What if there will be no election? N/A or resolves to whoever is factually in power?

@qumeric I assume IT will Resolve to No 2028 Election

@CaptainHowdy @crator this should be changed to DUPLICATE - WILL RESOLVE NO…

There’s already a Tulsi Gabbard option

I don't think "There will be a faux-election but it will be neither free nor fair and results therefore illegitimate" should be an option - how will that be adjudicated? It also overlaps with other options - e.g. there could be a faux election with JD Vance elected.

EDIT: corrected "objection" to "option", which is what I meant

@ToSummarise Yeah, my interpretation of this market was "who will be elected, even if it's not fair"

probably me but unfortunately Tetra seems to have forgotten to add me. Sad!

There's a bug that prevents me from buying Mike Pence or lower probability names. Also just above this threshold, 1 mana on Glenn Youngkin spikes the odds to 3%, yet e.g. Shawn Fain requires 18 mana to reach 1.0%. What the heck is going on?

@Pepe the odds are apparently so low for those because no one bought them. If you do, you raise the odds. Doesn't seem to be wrong

How does it resolve if the election winner is different than the person who effectively becomes the president? (E.g. the election outcome is disputed, there's an inssurection and the election loser takes power.)

@SimoneRomeo I think this should be decided based upon the official results in the Electoral College.

I do not believe that there should be any criteria that the election results be fair.

@SteveSokolowski makes sense to me, just wanted to clarify as there are going to be disputes

@SimoneRomeo I don't believe there will be any dispute in the result, actually. I've sold all of my Democratic candidates in these markets this morning.

Well there be an election in 2028?

@Iamczecksy Almost certainly. I have little doubt it will be at least as fair as the elections done by Trump's BFF over in Russia.

@Iamczecksy What do you think?

Warning: If your answer is unrealistic, then you'll likely be challenged to a bet.

It depends on the livelihood of American during the current administration. If things get worse the Republicans will be blamed if better then another 4 years. The Dems have already made a lot of mistakes they'll need new faces and new messaging. Economic solutions benefiting the less wealthy will be more popular than identity politics in 2028.

@ShakedKoplewitz @Tetra @mods this is a duplicate - is there a way to merge the duplicates, or remove one of them?

@AnonUser I have deleted the newer one

@Tetraspace mine was the original one. You deleted the older one

@LeeBressler Nope. As the top of this thread says "Lee Breasler answered 19d" [ago] , while it you try to comment on the other one, it says "ShakedKoplewitz answered 1mo" [ago], so you were second. I think what happened is that a correctly-splled answer was already there, then you added an incorrectly spelled one, then (per the other thread) your misspelling was corrected, turning your answer into an exact duplicate...