Who will be elected president in 2028?
➕
Plus
180
Ṁ39k
2028
32%
Other
31%
J.D. Vance
5%
Gavin Newsom
4%
Pete Buttigieg
4%
Mark Cuban
3%
Donald Trump Jr
3%
Josh Shapiro
3%
Donald Trump
1.9%
Kamala Harris
1.9%
Ritchie Torres
1.9%
Gretchen Whitmer
1.6%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
1%
Mark Kelly
1%
Shawn Fain
Getting in early
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Ṁ1,000
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Is something wrong with the liquidity in this market?

Massive swings for tiny positons, but 35k total mana invested.

bought Ṁ250 NO

@SteveSokolowski this reminds me of one of my favorite trivia questions, "who was the only president to have been the head of a labor union"

@ShakedKoplewitz Buying NO is a good idea to get it down below the 7% it defaulted at, but this is a long-shot bet that I think should not be underestimated.

I used to think that Shapiro would be the next President, but I'm not so sure given what we saw. I think there's a good chance now that AOC or Fain will be nominated because we're in an era where the #1 desired feature in a candidate is to blow stuff up.

@Tetraspace 4% could be about right but I would think even lower. He's not running if Harris wins this year and VP nominees for losing candidates generally don't find success later.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Should add JD Vance

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 25% order

Seems like this market is kind of broken post pivot? Needs some subsidisation

opened a Ṁ250 NO at 5% order

@Daniel_MC subsidized. Should be a tiny bit more stable now

@NivlacM seem much better now

Who is this?

Oh man, DeSantis-scenario is straight up dystopia. If you bet on that, you may as well bet on the end of the USoA. Florida-man in a suit. 😜

Hypothetical future perennial candidate Donald Trump might go for another run
13% he becomes president * 50% he gets a second term
7% she becomes president * 50% she gets a second term?
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