Who will be elected president in 2028?
482
6.4kṀ180k
2028
30%
J.D. Vance
22%
Other
10%
Tulsi Gabbard
5%
Josh Shapiro
5%
Donald Trump
4%
Pete Buttigieg
3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
3%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Elon Musk
2%
Mark Cuban
2%
No 2028 Election
1.8%
Wes Moore
1.8%
Chris Murphy
1.1%
Nikki Haley
1.1%
Ron DeSantis
Getting in early
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opened a Ṁ50 YES at 12% order

How does this resolve if there isn't a fair election?

@KevinBurke No 2028 Election

@KevinBurke If there is an unfair election, it resolves to the election winner

Economic indicators seem to be pointing towards a republican 2028 popular vote win. It would be pretty hard for Trump to have a worse economy than Biden did.

@TNTOutburst "Worse" needs quite some qualifiers here. "Worse for electability", maybe.

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 23% order

Is anyone else not getting trader bonuses from options they added even though the trade log shows that trades have been made on them specifically rather than purely being split from the other option?

Is this a bug? Would I get my mana back if I got the creator or a mod to n/a my added options?

filled a Ṁ2 YES at 12% order

@TheAllMemeingEye I’m

I’m pretty sure I wasn’t getting the right amount of new trader bonuses in my last 2 markets.

Why did the option I added already go to 14% lol

@Tetra I think there's a high likelihood of Petr Pavel running for a second presidential term. Can you add him as an option?

Ron Desantis is a real steal here at 0.7%. (Should be trading at 0.0%)

@WrongoPhD Only problem is that you can’t bet NO on options below 1%

filled a Ṁ5 YES at 15% order

@WrongoPhD if trump can't become dictator, can't run again himself, doesn't nominate one of his children, and falls out with Vance like he did with Pence, then wouldn't Ron Desantis or Nikki Haley be the most natural republican nominations given their support base and previous presidential nomination campaigns?

@TheAllMemeingEye You are forgetting that he's less charismatic than Jeb Bush

@WrongoPhD as a zoomer brit my entire knowledge of Jeb Bush comes from this meme without context

Was he known for being uncharismatic?

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Ibozz91 Make a new question for yes or no on wtatever

Add which country to the title.

sold Ṁ0 YES

Is it just me or does this market feel WAY swingier after the betting rework?

Is something wrong with the liquidity in this market?

Massive swings for tiny positons, but 35k total mana invested.

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso weird stuff happens if answers got to 0.0%

bought Ṁ250 NO

@SteveSokolowski this reminds me of one of my favorite trivia questions, "who was the only president to have been the head of a labor union"

@ShakedKoplewitz Buying NO is a good idea to get it down below the 7% it defaulted at, but this is a long-shot bet that I think should not be underestimated.

I used to think that Shapiro would be the next President, but I'm not so sure given what we saw. I think there's a good chance now that AOC or Fain will be nominated because we're in an era where the #1 desired feature in a candidate is to blow stuff up.

@Tetraspace 4% could be about right but I would think even lower. He's not running if Harris wins this year and VP nominees for losing candidates generally don't find success later.

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