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Are some of these (apart from Pamala Harris who I know is) democrats?
Vance is even more extreme than Trump, I see multiple extreme candidates in the list.
@AlanTennant It's really too early to know who'll run, but apart from Kamala, the candidates who tend to poll the highest are Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Gavin Newsom is the Governor of California, and many suspect he's been planning to run for president for a while because of his connections with Democratic party leaders and his popular social media campaigns. Buttigieg is the former Secretary of Transportation, and he ran for president in 2020 and did pretty well. Ocasio-Cortez is a US Representative, and she's a prominent leader among left-wing politicians (alongside Bernie Sanders, who says he's too old to run for president again.)
@ZaneMiller there's a political machine behind him, a group of San Francisco politicians have been playing the long game, including Pelosi, Harris, and Newsom. It's not about appeal, it's pure old-school politics.
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@BoydKane $1 PODIUM VS $1,000,000 PODIUM
LAST MURDERER TO LEAVE CIRCLE GETS A PARDON
I SPENT 24 HOURS LOCKED IN THE WHITE HOUSE NUCLEAR BUNKER
@ThomasMach isn't he, like, openly radically homophobic? With election majorities so thin that could make it very difficult to win. However yeah 0.1% is still probably a tad too low
@TheAllMemeingEye My internal model is democratic and republican nominee gets 50% in chance until there is relying polling data. Thus the question is: Can Mike Johnson become the nominee? That I see as likelier as both Obamas or The Rock Johnson.
Maybe you then want to discount his chances of winning to less than 50:50 but more like 40:60 because he is kind of unpopular. I bought his chances at 0.1% and I think 0.3-0.5% might be fair.
@TheAllMemeingEye I think the problem is that buying no at 3% binds up a lot of mana for 3 years without much upside.
@jessald I understand why some would click to buy yes with a few mana behind it. And I understand that there is a reason why he is the highest among non-politicians.
@ThomasMach I also just realized a one mana bet on him would move his odds from 0.1 to 5%.
I guess liquidity must be divided over every listed candidate or something?
@jessald Yes the market doesn't have enough liquidity. That's another reason one can't profit enough from The Rock at 3% to justify driving down the price.
@ThomasMach ChatGPT evaluates the probability of all these events occurring at 0.036% https://chatgpt.com/share/68893ad8-56c8-8010-8086-04b78488f5e4
@ShawnReynolds In your chat ChatGPT assumes that Trump leaving and Vance leaving are independent events. They are not. There are plenty of cases, where the scandal or the terror attack is so big that both president and vice president are affected.
I think ChatGPT is under estimating most of the figures and thus is more like a lower bound.
@ThomasMach ChatGPT puts the odds of a dual-killing terrorist attack or assassination at ~0.001% (one in 100,000). I agree, this is just an action movie scenario.
They say that the "very generous" odds that both will resign or get impeached is 0.5%. I'd say 0.05% (one in two thousand). In that scenario, there is probably a less than 20% chance that a Republican would get reelected in the wake of this scandal.
So both of these barely affect the odds.