The current DHS shutdown is a useful test of Republican coalition dynamics heading into 2028. Whether the party can resolve the immigration-funding impasse without fracturing matters for downstream primary positioning.

Short-term signal: will this shutdown last more than 72 hours? https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-partial-us-government-shut-psgyS2ssPZ

Okay I know this was a joke option, but I think it's totally a BUY at 0.0%. At infinity to one odds, I really like the chances for a President Mickey Mouse.

How this could happen:

1) Mickey Dollens is the minority whip of the Oklahoma House of Representatives! He's only 38 years old, and were he to win higher office in Oklahoma, he'd be a very nationally prominent democrat from a Red state! Just look at this hunk! In this political environment, decent odds that he rises to higher office by 2028, let's say 40% chance.

2) While Dollens is currently married, rates of divorce in the late 30s / early 40s are quite high, especially among politicians who are rising rapidly, and looking for an "upgrade" spouse. Unfortunate and cruel, but a true fact about the world. Let's say 30% chance of a divorce in the next couple years.

3) There are only a few hundred women with the surname "Mouse", but shockingly, a majority of them are in the Cherokee nation! Guess where the Cherokee nation is located? OKLAHOMA! Let's say 10% chance that Dollens remarries a woman with the surname Mouse.

4) It's becoming more common now for men to take the surname of their spouse, but in this case, there's another famous musician named Micky Dolenz (singer for the band The Monkees) and for Mickey Dollens (the politician's) career, it would probably make sense to avoid that negative association (rock is thought of as sinful and evil in rural areas of America). So let's say 60% chance he takes the name Mouse upon marrying.

5) What would the odds be of a high profile dem politician Mickey Mouse in 2028? Probably quite high. He'd poll quite well in a large primary, due to name recognition, so let's say 20% chance he wins in the primary, probably still less than a heavy-hitter like AOC or Newsom.

6) Conditional on winning the primary, I'd say he's overwhelmingly favored in the general election. He'd be moderate, from Oklahoma, and a young and energetic candidate in a negative environment towards Republicans after 4 years of Trump. Let's say 75%.

Let's multiply these probabilities together to get our final forecast of a Mickey Mouse presidency in 2028.

Hmmm, 0.1%! Not too shabby. And that's not including the possibility of other Mickey Mouses. It's a BUY.

@bens OTC contract?

@bens You've convinced me, but if I even throw 1 mana at that, it moves the needle to 0.2%, which is overvalued.

I am a trader that likes to play near the lower and higher bound extremes, but I can't make it work here due to technical reasons.

Ho hum.

@Quroe buy 1M worth of shares and sell as many of them as is needed to move the needle back to tolerance

@dgga I will pay you 10 mana if you can take a screenshot of each step of that process and show me how to do it.

@jgyou ahaha

Are some of these (apart from Pamala Harris who I know is) democrats?

Vance is even more extreme than Trump, I see multiple extreme candidates in the list.

@AlanTennant I think most of the options are Democrats.

@ZaneMiller Thank you, lots who I don't know about yet.

@AlanTennant It's really too early to know who'll run, but apart from Kamala, the candidates who tend to poll the highest are Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Gavin Newsom is the Governor of California, and many suspect he's been planning to run for president for a while because of his connections with Democratic party leaders and his popular social media campaigns. Buttigieg is the former Secretary of Transportation, and he ran for president in 2020 and did pretty well. Ocasio-Cortez is a US Representative, and she's a prominent leader among left-wing politicians (alongside Bernie Sanders, who says he's too old to run for president again.)

@ZaneMiller I really appreciate the info, shame Bernie Sanders wont run.

@AlanTennant Bernie Sanders would be 91 years old at the end of his term, were he to run, lol. That would make him older than any world leader alive today, with the exception of Paul Biya of Cameroon. Just a thought.

@ZaneMiller yes

62k on Mickey let's go

@ItsMe Still higher than DeSantis

Tfw Barron Trump, who isn't even old enough and was added as a joke answer, is at almost double the odds of Donald Trump Jr, and almost twenty times the odds of Ivanka Trump

Can someone explain why people think Newsom is the Democratic leader? I don't understand his appeal.

@ZaneMiller there's a political machine behind him, a group of San Francisco politicians have been playing the long game, including Pelosi, Harris, and Newsom. It's not about appeal, it's pure old-school politics.

We have hit the market option cap. Please use another market if you wish to specifically trade on one candidate

@nikki too late to add him, but I think Eric Trump has a shot.

Related:

Never-Trump Republicans are drastically undervalued.

Gavin Newsom has a real chance if, and it’s a big if, he can dial down his exaggerated hand gestures during podcast appearances.