@NateWatson Arbitrage opportunity:
/jks/during-which-election-will-any-of-d

@SteveSokolowski this reminds me of one of my favorite trivia questions, "who was the only president to have been the head of a labor union"

@ShakedKoplewitz Buying NO is a good idea to get it down below the 7% it defaulted at, but this is a long-shot bet that I think should not be underestimated.

I used to think that Shapiro would be the next President, but I'm not so sure given what we saw. I think there's a good chance now that AOC or Fain will be nominated because we're in an era where the #1 desired feature in a candidate is to blow stuff up.

another market on the same thing: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj

@Tetraspace 4% could be about right but I would think even lower. He's not running if Harris wins this year and VP nominees for losing candidates generally don't find success later.

Should add JD Vance

Seems like this market is kind of broken post pivot? Needs some subsidisation

@Daniel_MC subsidized. Should be a tiny bit more stable now

@NivlacM seem much better now

Who is this?

Oh man, DeSantis-scenario is straight up dystopia. If you bet on that, you may as well bet on the end of the USoA. Florida-man in a suit. 😜