Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Democratic primary for President?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES for any candidate who finishes in the top 2 (first or second place) in any single state's Democratic primary election.(by popular vote, not delegates) The 2028 presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028, with primaries occurring in the months prior. Resolution will be determined by official state primary results published by state election authorities and major news outlets covering the 2028 Democratic primary.

Note: Democrats have no clear presidential primary calendar for 2028, so the specific states and timing remain to be determined by the DNC.

Must be a STATE!

Democrats Abroad,American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, US Virgin Islands,

District Of Colombia and Puerto Rico, and any other non states, don’t count as states, unless they are proclaimed a state before the primary occurs, like Alaska was proclaimed on Jan 3 1959.

If uncommitted, or a similar named option, gets 1st or 2nd, only 1 person from that state can counts towards resolution.

Resolves based on popular vote, not delegate count!

Background

The 2028 Democratic presidential primary is set to be the most wide-open field in a generation. Early polling shows a fragmented field with no clear frontrunner. Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez lead among likely Democratic primary voters in early state polling, though Newsom polls ahead in five out of ten hypothetical state-based 2028 primary polls, while Buttigieg leads in the remaining four states. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads among young Democratic voters in a hypothetical 2028 presidential primary.

Considerations

Polls this far out from the primaries don't carry much weight and are mostly measuring name recognition at this point. Early polling dynamics often shift dramatically once candidates formally announce and campaigns begin in earnest. Additionally, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin and other party officials have discussed the possibility of using ranked-choice voting in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries, which could affect how results are reported and interpreted.

Comment below if you want clarification, or would like me to add an option!

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Gavin Newsom, followed by Josh Shapiro and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are most likely. See the market for live updates (19 traders, as of Mar 9, 2026).