In 2024, how much will the Democrat win the popular vote by?
Basic
8
แน924Dec 1
19%
The Democrat will lose the popular vote.
11%
0 - 1%
8%
1% - 2%
16%
2% - 3%
18%
3% - 4%
9%
4% - 5%
8%
5% - 6%
4%
6% - 7%
4%
7% - 8%
3%
8%+
Based on my previous market, /JosephNoonan/what-will-the-popular-vote-margin-b, traders find it very unlikely that anyone other than a Democrat will win the popular vote. That market used intervals of 2%, so here is one that gives a more fine-grained picture of how much Democrats will win the PV by.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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