What will the popular vote margin be in 2024?

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resolved Dec 5

100%98.7%

Republican, 0-2%

0.1%

Republican, 2%+

0.9%

Democrat, 0-2%

0.2%

Democrat, 2% - 4%

0.1%

Democrat, 4% - 6%

0.0%

Democrat, 6%+

0.0%

Other

Resolves to the amount by which the popular vote winner of the 2024 POTUS election wins by, and the party they are from. Doesn't matter if the popular vote winner wins the Electoral College or not.

"Other" means that an independent or third party candidate wins the popular vote. If the margin is somehow exactly on the boundary of two of these intervals, I'll resolve each to 50%.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Elections

#2024 US Election

#Election margins

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It's right on the border between Less-than-2% and More-than-2% right now — so I feel like the "More-than-2%" option has WAY more than a 1% chance of happening. (Like, at least a 5% chance of occurring, I'd say)

Add election to the title. There are many elections in 2024. Helps searches.

<2% for Republican 2%+ is insane. It is pretty unlikely, but below 2% is a degree of certainty we simply don't have yet.

Is this measuring percentage difference or percentage points difference (Iwould 2020 be 9 or 4.5?)

@ShakedKoplewitz The margin is just the percentage of votes that went to the winner, minus the percent that went to the runner-up. So it was 4.5% in 2020. I don't know how 9% would come about from any way of measuring it.

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