What will Biden's share of the popular vote be in the 2024 election?
Plus
14
Ṁ4587Dec 1
87%
>= .0001%
35%
>= .001%
19%
>= .01%
8%
>= .1%
3%
>= 1%
As far as I'm aware, he won't be on any ballots, and this market will primarily be about write-in votes.
I expect resolution will be somewhat delayed while we await certified counts and detailed reporting.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@EvanDaniel For comparison, this is a level exceeded in the 2020 election by Mitt Romney, Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie Sanders, and many others, some purely on write-in votes. Mike Pence and Andrew Yang did not meet the .0001% level. No candidate achieved .001% purely on write-in votes.
Related questions
Related questions
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have won the popular vote?
47% chance
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he win the popular vote?
43% chance
What will the Democratic Nominee's exact vote share be in the 2024 Presidential Election nationwide?
What will the popular vote margin be in 2024?
Will the Democratic candidate win the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
74% chance
How large will the popular vote margin be in the 2024 presidential election?
What will the Dem Nominee's exact vote share be in the 2024 Presidential Election in Pennsylvania?
How much of the popular vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
What will the Dem Nom's exact vote share be in the 2024 Presidential Election in Wisconsin?
Open answer: How many electoral votes will the Democratic presidential candidate win in 2024?