As far as I'm aware, he won't be on any ballots, and this market will primarily be about write-in votes.
I expect resolution will be somewhat delayed while we await certified counts and detailed reporting.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ229 | |
| 2 | Ṁ202 | |
| 3 | Ṁ59 | |
| 4 | Ṁ17 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
@4fa Percentages don't add to 100% because it's not a dependent market with ranges, it's a set of binary above/below questions. (If we had good data that it had been .003%, two of the options would have resolved Yes, and it would add to 200%, not 100%.)
I resolved to market price because as best I can tell we don't have data and won't get it. No traders offered data on resolution sources, nor did anyone on the discord when I asked for help there. We don't even have good enough data for a rough estimate. If you've got data sources you think I should use, or some other methodology to improve on the market price, please speak up!
@4fa Apologies for the unsatisfying answer, I'm not happy with it either. I tried a bunch to do better and failed to.
If you want to know how many people voted for Biden in the last NYC mayoral (?!?) race, that data is available (by district, even!). But not for President. I assumed I'd be able to get writein vote tallies, at least with enough detail for a solid estimate. No luck.
@traders Anyone have a good resolution source? FEC report doesn't have it, where else should I look?
I don't yet see any clear reports on totals. Dave Leip isn't reporting numbers. Might have to wait for the FEC report. Let me know if you have a good source before that.
@EvanDaniel For comparison, this is a level exceeded in the 2020 election by Mitt Romney, Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie Sanders, and many others, some purely on write-in votes. Mike Pence and Andrew Yang did not meet the .0001% level. No candidate achieved .001% purely on write-in votes.