What will Biden's share of the popular vote be in the 2024 election?
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22
Ṁ7978Dec 1
90%
>= .0001%
54%
>= .001%
10%
>= .01%
4%
>= .1%
1.1%
>= 1%
As far as I'm aware, he won't be on any ballots, and this market will primarily be about write-in votes.
I expect resolution will be somewhat delayed while we await certified counts and detailed reporting.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@EvanDaniel For comparison, this is a level exceeded in the 2020 election by Mitt Romney, Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie Sanders, and many others, some purely on write-in votes. Mike Pence and Andrew Yang did not meet the .0001% level. No candidate achieved .001% purely on write-in votes.
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