What will Biden's share of the popular vote be in the 2024 election?
25
1.2kṀ8754Mar 31
61%
>= .0001%
17%
>= .001%
8%
>= .01%
3%
>= .1%
1%
>= 1%
As far as I'm aware, he won't be on any ballots, and this market will primarily be about write-in votes.
I expect resolution will be somewhat delayed while we await certified counts and detailed reporting.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
I don't yet see any clear reports on totals. Dave Leip isn't reporting numbers. Might have to wait for the FEC report. Let me know if you have a good source before that.
@EvanDaniel For comparison, this is a level exceeded in the 2020 election by Mitt Romney, Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie Sanders, and many others, some purely on write-in votes. Mike Pence and Andrew Yang did not meet the .0001% level. No candidate achieved .001% purely on write-in votes.