Resolution is based on the EST time when the eventual winner first reaches 95% win probability on the platform and stays above it for most of the subsequent 6 hour period (unless it is resolved first).
All platforms are expected to be online and available for live trading. No special considerations will be made for technical outage, trading restrictions, manipulation, etc.
1,000
3.00@mods I will need help determining when the Manifold market first crossed 95%. I should be able to determine the other options independently https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
I found a dashboard that may have all the relevant data https://www.thesupermodel.com/p/presidential-winner
Do you want it to "display 95%" or "actually cross 95%"?
From what I can tell, this is the first trade that displayed at 95%, but it was actually only brought to 0.946 after it, createdTime 1730873640:
This is the first trade that crossed from 0.949 to 0.951, createdTime 1730873898:
You can use this API query to verify, maybe I missed something:
@Eliza Thanks. Assuming that is UTC, I converted it to 1:14 am eastern. It would not be able to resolve in favor of Manifold. I will take a look at Kalshi and Polymarket raw data tomorrow