Which forecast/model will the Super Model find most profitable vs. Polymarket for the 2024 presidential election?
12
2.8kṀ13kresolved Dec 31
100%82%
Harry Crane
0.9%
538
0.8%
Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver)
0.7%
13 Keys (Allan Lichtman)
1.1%
Decision Desk HQ
1.0%
JHK Forecast
0.8%
Economist
1.5%
Race To the White House
1.1%
Metaculus
1.4%
Super Model itself
0.8%
Manifold
1.1%
Ettingermentum
7%Other
Based on the "Wages of Election Modeling" Overall Performance score, as found at thesupermodel.com/p/the-wages-of-election-modeling and all comparable scoring pages on that site as of 11:59:59 pm ET on December 21, 2024.
If no forecasts are found to be profitable by that measure, this market will resolve in favor of the one to lose the least money.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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