Which one is the most accurate prediction market? (2024)
22
1kแน€4287
Jan 1
92%
Metaculus
89%
Polymarket
77%
Manifold Market
74%
Kalshi
59%
Augur
47%
Betfair
34%
PredictIt
34%
Iowa Electronic Markets

Which prediction market is the most accurate?
Participants are encouraged to cite statistics and meta-studies regarding the accuracy of various markets. Different measures of accuracy in different scenarios (such as illiquid or low-trader markets) are also considered


Based on the average rankings once the market achieves a sufficient number of traders, I will aggregate the rankings based on the average market price. In this approach, last-minute betting ('sniping') does not significantly affect the rankings. However, maintaining a high price for an answer can influence its rank

This market resolves according to the aggregated ranking:
#1 resolves to 100%, #2 resolves to 90%, and so on.

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