Which one is the most accurate prediction market? (2024)
10
58
1k
2025
73%
Metaculus
70%
Polymarket
55%
Kalshi
51%
Augur
38%
Manifold Market
34%
PredictIt
34%
Betfair
34%
Iowa Electronic Markets

Which prediction market is the most accurate?
Participants are encouraged to cite statistics and meta-studies regarding the accuracy of various markets. Different measures of accuracy in different scenarios (such as illiquid or low-trader markets) are also considered


Based on the average rankings once the market achieves a sufficient number of traders, I will aggregate the rankings based on the average market price. In this approach, last-minute betting ('sniping') does not significantly affect the rankings. However, maintaining a high price for an answer can influence its rank

This market resolves according to the aggregated ranking:
#1 resolves to 100%, #2 resolves to 90%, and so on.

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bought Ṁ25 of Manifold Market NO

Manifold is definitely not the most accurate, but it is the most convenient.

@PeanutCookieFantaCheesyPa Give Manifold some more love