Which one is the most accurate prediction market? (2024)

Basic

11

Ṁ1752025

1D

1W

1M

ALL

73%

Metaculus

70%

Polymarket

55%

Kalshi

51%

Augur

47%

Manifold Market

34%

PredictIt

34%

Betfair

34%

Iowa Electronic Markets

Which prediction market is the most accurate?

Participants are encouraged to cite statistics and meta-studies regarding the accuracy of various markets. Different measures of accuracy in different scenarios (such as illiquid or low-trader markets) are also considered

Based on the average rankings once the market achieves a sufficient number of traders, I will aggregate the rankings based on the average market price. In this approach, last-minute betting ('sniping') does not significantly affect the rankings. However, maintaining a high price for an answer can influence its rank

This market resolves according to the aggregated ranking:

#1 resolves to 100%, #2 resolves to 90%, and so on.

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