Which one is the most accurate prediction market? (2024)

1kṀ4287

Jan 1

92%

Metaculus

89%

Polymarket

77%

Manifold Market

74%

Kalshi

59%

Augur

47%

Betfair

34%

PredictIt

34%

Iowa Electronic Markets

Which prediction market is the most accurate?
Participants are encouraged to cite statistics and meta-studies regarding the accuracy of various markets. Different measures of accuracy in different scenarios (such as illiquid or low-trader markets) are also considered

Based on the average rankings once the market achieves a sufficient number of traders, I will aggregate the rankings based on the average market price. In this approach, last-minute betting ('sniping') does not significantly affect the rankings. However, maintaining a high price for an answer can influence its rank

This market resolves according to the aggregated ranking:
#1 resolves to 100%, #2 resolves to 90%, and so on.

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surely something like https://calibration.city/ is a more objective

measure

lol how can manifold markets be at 1, for example for the joe biden dropout market and election market i know from experience that polymarket was actually more accurate

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 25% order

It's kind of hard to compare, how will you know exactly? Because betfair for example is not really a prediction market, i would more call it a betting market specializing in mostly sportsbetting. But betfairs has like hundreds of markets that play out each day. To know exactly you would have to analyse every single market result and compare that to platforms like metaculus, see which has the highest brier score.