Richard Ngo predicted on Twitter that, before 2026, LLMs (or whatever SOTA large models are at the time) will be able to beat any human on any computer task a typical white-collar worker can do in 10 minutes.

In this question, I will attempt to grade whether this prediction is true based on my best subjective judgement in Jan 2026, by asking people to come up with counterexamples that I then evaluate.

For the purposes of this question, all Manifold users will be considered by default to be "typical white-collar workers" unless it is clear to me that the Manifold user in particular has some sort of very unusual skill that I wouldn't expect >10% of Manifold users to have.

I will rely on my subjective judgement to evaluate the credibility of cases. In the case this question is to resolve, I will allow 48 hours of discussion before resolving.

I will not personally be trading on this market because it relies on my subjective judgement.

Note that this prediction will likely only resolve based on publicly available large models, so it's possible that it may resolve NO even if Ngo was techinically right.