Will there be an LLM which scores above what a human can do in 2 hours on METR's eval suite before 2026?

11

100Ṁ592

resolved Nov 24

Resolved

YES

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METR has found that current frontier models get a score on their autonomy benchmark roughly similar to a human who is given 30 minutes. Will at least one model score at the level of a human given 2 hours by 2026?

Clarifications:

I will try to resolve this market in accordance with the current task suite. If METR makes the suite harder or easier I will try to account for this in the resolution of this market.
if I am not able to determine the performance of frontier models at the end of 2025, this market will be resolved NA

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bought Ṁ150 YES

GPT-5 satisfies the criterion: https://evaluations.metr.org/gpt-5-report/

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