If China does not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2035, then this question will resolve as N/A. If China does invade Taiwan, this question will resolve as Yes if the United States responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Chinese invasion.

In line with our main question, China will be considered to have launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan if either of these occur:

• The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

• At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.

The United States will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Chinese infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by a member of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff or the President. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Chinese nationals, will count

(Description from Metaculus but replaced Ambiguous with N/A, will resolve identically)