If The FED cuts, will the Dems win the presidency?
🇺🇸 US PoliticsTrumpJoe BidenFederal reserveInterest Rates
Basic
22
Ṁ3.0k
Nov 16
51%
chance

This question resolves Yes if the markets below resolve as Yes and Democratic Party, respectively.

This question resolves N/A (I will ask a mod) if Tomek’s market resolves No.

This market resolves No if the markets below resolve as Yes and Republican Party, respectively.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
2 Comments
19 Holders
30 Trades
Sort by:

The problem with this question is that correlation and causation is not the same.
They could cut rates and dems will win. But then did dems actually win because of them cutting rates or is it coincidence or caused by other factors?

The goal was just to gain an understanding of how the probability of Dems winning would be affected if interest rates get cut. Currently the market shows that Dems chances of winning increase 3 percent if rates get cut. That’s kinda interesting!

Related questions