Will the US enter a depression if the Democrats win the midterms?
1
Ṁ1kṀ2k2028
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
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1M
ALL
Depression defined as
a 10% decrease in GDP, OR
an economic contraction lasting 3 or more years, OR
unemployment rates >20%, OR
2 years of deflation due to decreased demand (must be combined with other spikes, e.g. high unemployment >10% but not reaching 20%, or significant underemployment where everyone is driving Uber or other gigwork, and/or a significant decrease in GDP >5% but that does not quite reach 10%), OR
Widespread banking collapse, debt defaults, lots of lost money, (must be combined with other spikes, see previous point)
If the R's subsequently win in 2028, resolves then, otherwise extends if dems maintain at least 2/3 of house/congress/pres.
Vibepressions don't count
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