Will the US enter a depression if the Republicans win the midterms?
1
Ṁ1kṀ5002028
8%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Depression defined as
a 10% decrease in GDP, OR
an economic contraction lasting 3 or more years, OR
unemployment rates >20%, OR
2 years of deflation due to decreased demand (must be combined with other spikes, e.g. high unemployment >10% but not reaching 20%, or significant underemployment where everyone is driving Uber or other gigwork, and/or a significant decrease in GDP >5% but that does not quite reach 10%), OR
Widespread banking collapse, debt defaults, lots of lost money, (must be combined with other spikes, see previous point)
If the D's subsequently win in 2028, resolves then, otherwise extends if Republicans maintain at least 2/3 of house/congress/pres.
Vibepressions don't count
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