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MANIFOLD
If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?
31
Ṁ2.1kṀ2.6k
2029
59%
Pete Buttigieg
59%
Josh Shapiro
58%
Raphael Warnock
55%
Cory Booker
54%
Gavin Newsom
53%
Mark Cuban
53%
Jon Stewart
50%
Gretchen Whitmer
49%
Michelle Obama
48%
Tim Walz
46%
Andrew Yang
45%
Beto O'Rourke
42%
Dwayne Johnson
42%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
34%
Stephen A. Smith
33%
Hakeem Jeffries
31%
Stacey Abrams
31%
Kamala Harris
23%
Chuck Schumer
22%
Sam Altman

Once a nominee is chosen at the Democratic convention, all non-nominees will resolve N/A, leaving only the nominee.

Then this market will convert to "Will NOMINEE win the 2028 presidential election?"

I reserve the right to remove or modify duplicates or joke answers.

Base rate:

Market context
US Politics
Politics
2028 US Presidential Election
Democratic Party
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If Donald Trump is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028 it is virtually guaranteed that he will win the presidency

The ROI on this is really bad. Edit: Unless you purely trade on margin.

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