Will the UN declare a famine in Gaza by 2030?

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resolved Aug 22

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, the United Nations (UN) officially declares a famine in the Gaza Strip. The declaration must be made by a recognized UN body, such as the World Food Programme (WFP) or the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). Official announcements can typically be found on the respective UN agency's website or through reputable news outlets. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.

Background

The IPC has issued warnings indicating that famine conditions are unfolding in Gaza. (who.int) However, a formal famine declaration has not yet been made.(apnews.com)

Considerations

The UN's criteria for declaring a famine require that:

At least 20% of households face extreme food shortages with a limited ability to cope.
The prevalence of acute malnutrition in children exceeds 30%.
The death rate from malnutrition/starvation exceeds two people per 10,000 per day.

Meeting all three criteria is necessary for an official famine declaration.

Because Gaza has over 2 million people, this would mean something like over 400 deaths per day. The Hamas-run Health Ministry has reported 154 deaths through July 30 2025 ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cdrkj810plvt ) .

Seven more malnutrition deaths reported in Gaza, as Hamas-run health ministry says 104 killed in 24 hours

The death toll since the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza has risen to 60,138, the ministry says.

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bought Ṁ1,250 YES

Unreal.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-865017

The UN actually changed its own criteria and removed the part about 2 deaths per 10,000 inhabitants to declare a famine.

@nathanwei

Considerations

The UN's criteria for declaring a famine require that:

At least 20% of households face extreme food shortages with a limited ability to cope.
The prevalence of acute malnutrition in children exceeds 30%.
The death rate from malnutrition/starvation exceeds two people per 10,000 per day.

Meeting all three criteria is necessary for an official famine declaration.

Because Gaza has over 2 million people, this would mean something like over 400 deaths per day. The Hamas-run Health Ministry has reported 154 deaths through July 30 2025 ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cdrkj810plvt ) .

Seven more malnutrition deaths reported in Gaza, as Hamas-run health ministry says 104 killed in 24 hours

The death toll since the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza has risen to 60,138, the ministry says.

@nathanwei Nope, not a consideration apparently.

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/08/13/global-food-insecurity-scale-was-eased-in-order-to-declare-famine-in-gaza/

Appears they changed some conditions. But you still would need 400 deaths a day which we are nowhere close to. Food aid into the strip is surging.

bought Ṁ200 NO

We would need 400 deaths per day from malnutrition to resolve as yes. Currently there have been 150something total reported deaths over the course of a few months. We are very far away from a yes.

@nathanwei Very true.

But we all know the UN is super anti-Israel

@realDonaldTrump The UN has objective criteria. If they don't get 400 reported deaths a day from malnutrition then it doesn't resolve YES. Food is increasing.

Also the UN is multifaceted. It has various bodies, some of which are more fair and some of which are notorious for anti-Israel bias. The WFP/IPC people are much more professional than Francesca Albanese. Even Hamas cannot fake 400 malnutrition deaths a day.