Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, the United Nations (UN) officially declares a famine in the Gaza Strip. The declaration must be made by a recognized UN body, such as the World Food Programme (WFP) or the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). Official announcements can typically be found on the respective UN agency's website or through reputable news outlets. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
Background
The IPC has issued warnings indicating that famine conditions are unfolding in Gaza. (who.int) However, a formal famine declaration has not yet been made.(apnews.com)
Considerations
The UN's criteria for declaring a famine require that:
At least 20% of households face extreme food shortages with a limited ability to cope.
The prevalence of acute malnutrition in children exceeds 30%.
The death rate from malnutrition/starvation exceeds two people per 10,000 per day.
Meeting all three criteria is necessary for an official famine declaration.
Because Gaza has over 2 million people, this would mean something like over 400 deaths per day. The Hamas-run Health Ministry has reported 154 deaths through July 30 2025 ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cdrkj810plvt ) .
1,000@realDonaldTrump The UN has objective criteria. If they don't get 400 reported deaths a day from malnutrition then it doesn't resolve YES. Food is increasing.
Also the UN is multifaceted. It has various bodies, some of which are more fair and some of which are notorious for anti-Israel bias. The WFP/IPC people are much more professional than Francesca Albanese. Even Hamas cannot fake 400 malnutrition deaths a day.