How many Gazans will starve to death by the end of 2025?

Question

Resolves inclusively based on the highest concrete estimate given by a major international body such as the United Nations or the World Food Program of the number of Gazans who have starved to death for reasons related to the current phase of the Israel/Hamas conflict that escalated on October 7th, 2023.

Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the interpretation of 'starved to death' for the purposes of this market:

Deaths reported as due to malnutrition will count.

Deaths resulting from consuming awful semi-edible food substitutes (where this leads to death) will count.

Deaths resulting from consuming only a small fraction of the calories a human needs to survive (where this leads to death) will count.

Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an estimate to be considered 'given by a major international body':

The international body can be reporting or relaying figures from another source (e.g., the United Nations reporting figures provided by the Gaza Ministry of Health). Such relayed figures will be considered 'given by' the international body for the purposes of this market.

Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Miscarriages are not expected to be counted.

Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The Gaza Health Ministry's numbers for malnutrition deaths will be the primary resolution source, provided they are treated as reliable and reported by major international bodies (e.g., the WFP).

If international bodies stop reporting these numbers or deem them suspect, a different resolution standard will be sought.

Update 2025-10-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Gaza Health Ministry (GHM) numbers will continue to be used as the primary data source as long as neutral proxies like CNN and Wikipedia do not migrate to a better primary data source. The creator notes that historically, the GHM has not been shown to be dramatically more biased than other native data sources.

Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will close at the end of 2025 but may not resolve immediately. The creator reserves the right to delay resolution for a substantial amount of time if:

Retroactive data is trickling in, or

There are signs of a large data drop in the future

However, if the Gaza Health Ministry signals that starvation deaths have been fully counted and have stopped, the market will resolve promptly.

Update 2025-11-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will close at the end of 2025 but may not resolve immediately. The creator will go 3 to 6 months at a time without resolving based on:

The progress of the peace plan

How stabilized things look

Whether the count appears to be complete

Update 2026-03-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering reaching out to GHM proxies to determine if the starvation death count is officially finalized for 2025. Wikipedia has historicized the Gaza famine as ending in December. Higher estimates (e.g., from Alex de Waal) will not be used unless the WFP or UN adopt those figures.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 500+, followed by 1,000+ and 2,000+ are most likely. See the market for live updates (151 traders, as of Mar 25, 2026).