What will be the next "hot war" to break out?
17
825Ṁ1766
resolved Oct 11
56%39%
Israel vs. Lebanon vs. Palestine
44%30%
Lebanon vs. Israel
0.1%
China vs. Taiwan
9%
Pakistan
0.1%
United States vs. Iran
0.4%
United States (Internal)
0.2%
United States vs. China
0.2%
United States vs. Russia
0.3%
Russia (Internal)
1.9%
Azerbaijan vs. Armenia
0.2%
Georgia vs. Russia
8%
Israel vs. Iran
10%Other

Scheduled to end in 2030, but will resolve early whenever Wikipedia moves a new entry or adds a new bullet point to the Conflict column of the Major Wars or Wars sections on their List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

For example, by these standards, both the Russo-Ukrainian War and the renewed Israeli-Palestinian Conflict would have counted as new hot wars (because despite starting in 1948, the I-P Conflict got hot recently and had a new bullet added to its entry). Please only submit new possibilities that are either a unique combination of two or more belligerents, or are a single country (which will only trigger for an internal conflict). Do not paraphrase.

If the update to the Wiki page doesn't add a new belligerent combination or civil conflict to the War or Major War categories, it will not resolve the market. Minor Conflicts can escalate into Wars based on their death toll. If a belligerent combination includes a smaller combination also on the market, they can both resolve yes if the supercategory was added to the list first. Feel free to ask clarifying questions!

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