Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to the first conflict that meets the following criteria:

• Definition of Global Conflict: A military confrontation involving at least two sovereign nations, resulting in sustained combat operations and significant casualties.

• Resolution Process:

  • The market will resolve to the specific conflict that first meets the above definition.

  • If multiple conflicts occur simultaneously, the market will resolve to the one that is most widely recognized as a global conflict by reputable international organizations and media outlets.

  • If no such conflict occurs by [specific date], the market will resolve as N/A.

Background:

As of April 2025, several geopolitical tensions have the potential to escalate into global conflicts:

• India vs. Pakistan: Both nations have a history of disputes, particularly over the Kashmir region. Recent skirmishes and political rhetoric have heightened tensions, raising concerns about potential escalation.

• China vs. Taiwan: China considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has increased military activities near the island. Taiwan, with support from allies like the United States, continues to assert its autonomy, leading to a precarious situation in the region.

• USA vs. China: Trade disputes, military posturing in the South China Sea, and differing political ideologies have strained relations between the United States and China. While both nations have significant economic interdependencies, the potential for conflict remains a topic of international concern.

Traders should monitor these and other international developments closely, as the geopolitical landscape can change rapidly.